Utah State vs. BYU Picks, Predictions College Football Week 5: Old Wagon Wheel Up for Grabs

Check out our top picks for the 91st meeting between Utah State and BYU.

Henry John

Last updated: September 29, 2022 3:34 AM EDT • 4 min read

The Old Wagon Wheel is up for grabs as a massive Week 5 college football schedule gets underway with a rivalry game between Utah State and BYU on Thursday night. Check out our Utah State-BYU picks below.

Utah State won the Mountain West Conference title last year but it is just 1-3 to start the 2022 season. The Aggies beat UConn 31-20 in their season opener but have since lost three straight games by at least 10 points each. The worst of those was a 55-0 loss to Alabama.

BYU is 3-1 straight up and 2-2 against the spread. The Cougars took their lone loss by a 41-20 score against Oregon in Week 3 but rebounded nicely with a 38-24 win over Wyoming last week.

Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 5 matchup between Utah State and BYU (odds via PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Utah State vs. BYU Game Info

Date: Thursday, Sept. 29, 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
Weather: 65 degrees, 70.5% chance of precipitation, 8-10-mph winds S

Utah State vs. BYU Odds

Utah State vs. BYU Odds Analysis

BYU has drawn 74% of the handle on just 50% of the tickets as of Thursday morning. However, the spread has dropped slightly from the consensus opening line of 24.5 to 24.

The total has also fallen, from 61 to 60, with 64% of the tickets accounting for 72% of the handle on the Under.

Utah State vs. BYU Picks

Utah State vs. BYU ATS Pick

BYU -24 (-107) ★★

Twenty-four points may seem like a lot to lay in a rivalry game, but it is easily the preferred option. By all accounts, Utah State appears to be headed for a lost season in 2022. There was some doubt as to whether senior quarterback Logan Bonner would even be ready for the Aggies’ season-opener. While he has played in all four games to date, it has been far from pretty.

Bonner has openly admitted that he is struggling to trust his surgically repaired knee. Losing each of his top three receivers from a year ago also hasn’t helped matters. In the last two games against FCS-level Weber State and UNLV, Bonner was intercepted a whopping eight times. The five picks he threw last week comprised the majority of Utah State’s minus-6 turnover margin for the game.

Another major concern for the Aggies is the offensive line. Despite returning over 100 starts of experience, the unit was getting worked over hard by UNLV’s defense last week. Needless to say, BYU defensive lineman Tyler Batty and the rest of the Cougars' pass-rushers will have their ears pinned back on Thursday night.

On the other side of the ball, Utah State’s defense has shown no ability to get stops consistently this season. Even lowly UConn amassed over 360 yards of offense against the Aggies in Week 0. After jumpstarting their ground game with redshirt freshman Miles Davis last week, the Cougars should have no trouble moving the football in this matchup.

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Utah State vs. BYU O/U Pick

Under 60 (-107) ★★★★

The fact that the total has come down while the point spread has remained stationary or even risen slightly at some sportsbooks serves as a pretty good indicator of how the sharp side of the college football betting market views this matchup. BYU is clearly expected to account for most of the scoring on Thursday night. With that said, there are a few key factors to note with regard to playing the Under.

Firstly, bettors should anticipate a heavy dose of run plays from the Cougars. Whether BYU opts to ride with Davis after last week’s impressive performance or go back to Cal transfer Chris Brooks, this matchup figures to be an ideal spot for the Cougs to bolster a rushing attack that was surprisingly poor early in the season.

The other key element to consider when handicapping this game is the weather forecast. At the time of writing, reports are calling for rainy conditions in Provo on Thursday night. This could very well lead to a run-heavy offensive approach for both teams.

Utah State vs. BYU Prop Pick

Utah State team total: Under 17.5 (-135) ★★★★

In essence, playing the Under on Utah State’s team total falls right in line with our predictions for BYU to cover the hefty point spread and the game total to stay Under.

The Aggies’ offensive line will be significantly outgunned in this matchup. In two games against quality FBS competition, Utah State has failed to crack the 100-yard mark on the ground both times. Case in point, the wet, rainy weather that is being forecasted for Thursday night might do more harm to this offense than good.

It’s also unlikely that BYU lets off the gas given that this is a rivalry game. The fact that the Aggies’ team total can be found one point lower elsewhere in the market only reinforces the decision to play the Under.

Where to Bet on Utah State vs. BYU Picks

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Utah State-BYU picks made 9/27/2022 at 4:46 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.