Arizona vs. SMU Predictions & Odd Tonight | Best Bet & TD Pick for 2026 Holiday Bowl
My Arizona vs. SMU predictions expect the better defense to pull out a win in the Holiday Bowl today.
SMU enters as just a -115 betting favorite in whatβs considered one of the most evenly matched games of bowl season. Kickoff from Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego is slated for 8 p.m. ET (FOX). The Holiday Bowl is the final matchup in our college bowl game predictions.
Stay ahead this bowl season with our updated college football bowl game odds and schedule.
π Arizona vs. SMU predictions: 2026 Holiday Bowl
See the latest college football odds and our college football picks for every bowl game.
| Predictions | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona ML | -105 via bet365 | βββ |
| Ismail Mahdi anytime TD | +105 via bet365 | βββ |
π° Arizona vs. SMU best bet
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Arizona ML (-105) βββ
While Arizona is ranked No. 23 by SP+ and SMU is ranked No. 24, the difference should be the Wildcats' pass defense. Arizona allows the fourth-fewest passing yards per game in the country (155.9).
That makes this a difficult matchup for an SMU team that leans on QB Kevin Jennings' arm to make up for a run game that was middling in the ACC this season.
And the Wildcats have an efficient enough offense, ranked No. 15 in the nation in quality drive rate, to score enough to win thanks to QB Noah Fifita.
Score prediction: Arizona 24, SMU 23
π Best Arizona vs. SMU touchdown pick: Holiday Bowl
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Ismail Mahdi, RB, Arizona: Anytime TD (+105) βββ
This game lacks for superstars on offense, but Arizona does have one of the most explosive running backs in the country in Ismail Mahdi.
The Texas State transfer has been the Wildcats' most consistent playmaker this season, leading the team in both touches (136) and yards from scrimmage (887).
Mahdi's speed is his biggest asset, with him ranking top 20 in the Power Four in 15-plus-yard runs (13) and top 10 in breakaway rate (48.5%).
That big-play ability has helped him score in three of his last five games, and 23 times in his career.
π Top NFL draft prospects for Holiday Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treydan Stukes, Arizona | DB | Allowing 35.9 NFL QB rating in coverage | Round 3-5 |
| PJ Williams, SMU | OT | 2 sacks, 15 pressures allowed | Round 4-6 |
| Isaiah Smith, SMU | EDGE | 17.5 TFLs, 8.5 sacks | Round 4-6 |
| Ahmaad Moses, SMU | SAF | 5.5 TFLs, 5 INTs | Round 4-6 |
| Isaiah Nwokobia, SMU | SAF | 80 tackles, 7 PBUs | Round 4-6 |
| Dalton Johnson, Arizona | SAF | 97 tackles, 4 INTs | Round 4-6 |
| Ismail Mahdi, Arizona | RB | 887 scrimmage yards, 5 TDs | Round 6-UDFA |
π Live Arizona vs. SMU odds: Holiday Bowl
Arizona vs. SMU opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona -150 | SMU +125
- Spread: Arizona -3 (-105) | SMU +3 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)
π Arizona vs. SMU betting trends
| Arizona | Statistic | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | W-L record | 8-4 |
| 8-4 | ATS record | 5-7 |
| 4-8 | O/U record | 4-8 |
| 5.9 | Yards per play | 6.3 |
| 4.6 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2 |
| +1.3 | Turnover margin | +1.0 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| W, 23-7 vs. Arizona State | Previous result | L, 38-35 vs. California |
π€ Arizona vs. SMU betting splits: Holiday Bowl
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Bet type | % of bets | % of handle |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona ML (-110) | 69% | 65% |
| SMU ML (-110) | 31% | 35% |
| Arizona +1.5 | 66% | 62% |
| SMU -1.5 | 34% | 38% |
| Over 51.5 | 79% | 85% |
| Under 51.5 | 21% | 15% |
πΊ How to watch Arizona vs. SMU: Holiday Bowl
- Date: Friday, Jan. 2
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
- TV: FOX
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