Utah vs. Baylor Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Week 2
One of the most shocking college football upsets in Week 1 had the Baylor Bears lose outright as 27.5-point favorites against the Texas State Bobcats, who earned their first-ever win over a Power Five opponent. Can Baylor's record against its most challenging nonconference rival, the Utah Utes, be improved quickly enough to match it?
I break down the college football odds with some free college football picks and predictions for Utah vs. Baylor on Sept. 9.
Utah vs. Baylor best odds
Utah vs. Baylor picks and predictions
What was initially anticipated as one of the most exciting non-conference matchups in Week 2 has taken a turn for the worse, as both teams face the possibility of not having their starting quarterbacks available, potentially transforming the game into an unattractive and uncertain affair.
Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen will miss two to three weeks after suffering an MCL injury in the loss to Texas State. Shapen was one of the lone bright spots last week for the Bears, throwing for 303 yards and two touchdowns. His replacement is Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robertson, who went 6-for-12 for 113 yards in relief of Shapen last week, but both drives he saw action in ended in turnovers.
The Baylor offense has its hands full against a Utes defense that led the Pac-12 in sacks, sack percentage, and pressure percentage last year. We expect Robertson to be under relentless pressure, as Utah’s 41 sacks were tied for eighth-best in FBS.
Meanwhile, Utah quarterback Cam Rising has two extra days to prepare after he missed last Thursday’s season-opening win against Florida. Early reports suggest he can practice without limitations, but he has not been given full clearance as he recovers from a torn ACL from last year.
Without Rising against the Gators, Utah used the two-quarterback tandem of Bryson Barnes and Nate Johnson, but it was clear their directive from head coach Kyle Whittingham was to not take unnecessary risks and play clean football. Barnes opened the game with a 70-yard touchdown pass to Money Parks on Utah’s first play but went just 11-for-17 for 89 yards the rest of the way and totaled just 51 passing yards after the first quarter. Baylor held up pretty well against the run last week, allowing 3.7 yards per carry, and faces a Utah offense that ranked top 10 in yards per rush and rushing touchdowns in 2022. The Bears will likely stack the box frequently if Rising is out again this week.
My best bet: Under 47.5 (-109 via BetRivers)
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Utah vs. Baylor same-game parlay
Under 47.5 + Baylor team total Under 21.5 (+125 via DraftKings)
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We are doubling down on the full game Under with Baylor’s team total, as we expect Utah’s dominant defense to wreck the game. Utah has one of the best front sevens in college football and held the Gators to 0.6 yards per rush and 1-of-13 on third down last week. It was a great continuation of last year’s defense that led the conference in scoring (20.4 points per game), total defense (325.3 yards per game), and sacks (38). The scary part for Baylor is the Utes had 17 defenders play 200-plus snaps last season, and 12 of them returned. The Bears return one of seven offensive linemen who had four-plus starts last year, so the Utes should be living in the backfield.
Baylor’s 21.5-point team total as a singular bet is -185, as the more standard -110 juice lies with its 19.5-point team total. However, we prefer to bring this wager up higher than the key numbers of 20 and 21 and can still use this alternate team total as part of a same-game parlay that pays plus-money odds by parlaying it with the full-game Under.
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Utah vs. Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis
BetRivers is the only shop offering the Under of 47.5 at less than standard juice, while DraftKings and FanDuel are at -110 odds on either side of the total. BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 are at a lower total of 47, and those three shops came down considerably from an opening number of 50.5 with the injury news surrounding the quarterbacks. However, the line drop also has much to do with the betting splits, as 67% of the wagers have backed the Under.
All sportsbooks are aligned with a point spread of Utah -7.5, with DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetRivers charging slightly higher -115 juice to back the underdogs. DraftKings had the lowest opening number among its competitors (Utah -5.5); others opened at -6 or higher. However, all shops blew through the key number of seven amid the news of Shapen’s MCL injury, and the Utes have seemingly plateaued at -7.5 after spending a brief time as 7-point favorites mid-week.
Should Rising ultimately be ruled out before kickoff, it will be interesting to see how much the spread lowers, if at all, as the possibility of him sitting out a second straight week may already be baked into the line.
From a moneyline perspective, Utah ranges from as low as -275 favorites at BetMGM to -310 at FanDuel.
Utah vs. Baylor betting trend to know
The Over is 9-2 in Baylor’s previous 11 games and has cashed in eight of Utah’s last 11 road games.
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Utah vs. Baylor game info
- Where: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
- When: Saturday, Sept. 9
- Time: Noon ET
- How to watch: ESPN
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