USC vs. Notre Dame Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 7: Can Fighting Irish Offense Get Right vs. Trojans?

Check out our USC vs. Notre Dame prediction for their Week 7 college football matchup based on the best NCAAF odds.

Mike Spector

Last updated: October 14, 2023 3:17 PM EDT • 6 min read

The marquee game of college football's Week 7 has the 5-2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish as home favorites against the undefeated USC Trojans, and our top USC vs. Notre Dame prediction based on the college football odds from our best sports betting apps is the perfect complement to the matchup.

The USC Trojans held on for a triple-overtime win against the Arizona Wildcats last week, and ESPN’s Bill Connelly noted the Trojans had the second-lowest postgame win expectancy (41%) in a victory in Week 6.

USC boasts an undefeated 6-0 record and will look to strengthen its CFP National Championship resume against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday. Notre Dame suffered its second loss of the season last week and is no longer in the championship discussion.

Louisville defeated Notre Dame with a score of 33-20 last week, marking the first time in school history that it beat AP top 10 opponents in consecutive seasons. The loss snapped Notre Dame’s 30-game ACC regular-season winning streak, and it had covered in 10 consecutive such games before the loss.

Our best USC vs. Notre Dame prediction pairs perfectly with our USC vs. Notre Dame player props (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

USC vs. Notre Dame prediction: Week 7

Over 61 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Notre Dame is playing its fourth consecutive ranked opponent in Week 7, and for it to come out victorious, its offense will have to play better than the previous three weeks.

Over the last three games, the Fighting Irish have averaged 18.3 points per game, which would rank 114th in FBS if extrapolated over an entire season. Part of the issue is that quarterback Sam Hartman has faced 38 pressures in the last two weeks, the most of any FBS quarterback. While that is an issue when facing a Trojans defense that ranks third in the FBS in total quarterback pressures, the Fighting Irish should be able to protect him better in this home game when the offensive line can communicate better, just as it did when the unit allowed zero sacks against Ohio State three weeks ago.

While the Fighting Irish offense has looked stagnant recently, it is certainly capable of big plays, as Notre Dame entered last week with 40 plays of 20 or more yards, which was tied for third in FBS. The Fighting Irish were just 3-for-13 on third down against Louisville, but they still managed 20 points despite those inefficiencies and turning the ball over five times. Before the Louisville game, Hartman had faced 14 ranked opponents and produced a 22-13 touchdown-interception ratio and a 127.0 efficiency rating despite completing just 55.3% of his passes. Thus, the offensive ceiling is still high.

Notre Dame’s defense will get a challenge unlike any it has faced before when lining up against the No. 1 offense in FBS per SP+ rankings. The Fighting Irish had difficulty containing the big-play ability of Cardinals running back Jawhar Jordan, who rushed for a season-high 143 yards and scored touchdowns of 21-plus yards on consecutive drives. Notre Dame’s defense looked gassed in its third straight game against a ranked opponent and now must find a way to slow down defending Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams.

While the Fighting Irish rank third in passing yards per game allowed (146.6) and have allowed just 22 plays of 22-plus yards, they only faced one offense ranked in the Top 35 of SP+ this season.

USC’s ability to spread the field and get the ball out in space will put an emphasis on tackling, and Notre Dame’s defense ranks 82nd in tackling efficiency, per PFF College. USC’s defense is even worse at 110th in that metric, so if the Fighting Irish can keep the Trojans out of the backfield, they should have plenty of opportunities for explosive plays (USC has the Pac-12’s fourth-worst defense in terms of PPA).

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USC vs. Notre Dame best odds

Caesars (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365
61.5	61.5	61.5	61	61.5
Over (-110)	Over (-110)	Over (-110)	Over (-110)	Over (-110)

Caesars is our go-to shop as Over backers, as it is the only one of our best sports betting sites with a total as low as 61.

BetRivers is as high as 62, suggesting that the number at Caesars has room to come up. However, we would not put anyone off waiting to see what the forecast in South Bend will look like over the next several days, as the total will likely come down some if the chance for precipitation increases.

USC vs. Notre Dame odds

USC vs. Notre Dame odds analysis

This total at the best sportsbooks is down significantly from the lookahead line of 66.5 from the summer, likely because Notre Dame’s offense has underperformed recently. At FanDuel, the total rose two points to 63.5 before Under backers weighed in and returned the line to its original number. There is dead-even 50/50 action on either side of the total to this point. The Under has cashed in three of the previous four meetings between these teams.

BetRivers is the only shop offering a spread of Notre Dame -2, while all others have the Fighting Irish as 2.5-point favorites. Notre Dame dropped as low as -1.5 at FanDuel on Sunday morning, then was bet as high as -3 later in the day before settling back in at -2.5. The Fighting Irish have received the slight majority of the point spread wagers (56%).

Notre Dame is 4-2-1 ATS this year, while USC has covered in just two of six games.

USC vs. Notre Dame game info

When: Saturday, Oct. 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
How to watch: NBC
Weather: 46 degrees, 46% chance of precipitation, wind 14 mph NNW

USC-Notre Dame prediction made 10/9/23 at 4:14 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”