UMass vs. Akron Prediction & Odds Tonight: College Football Week 11 Betting Preview

My UMass vs. Akron prediction tonight breaks down the return of MACtion on Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET from InfoCision Stadium in Akron, Ohio (CBSSN).

UMass, the MAC's newest team, is still looking for their first win of the season. But my college football Week 11 predictions don't think the Minutemen will get it tonight, with Akron being a 10-point home favorite.

✅ UMass vs. Akron prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 11.

📊 UMass vs. Akron odds today

See live college football odds for every game in Week 11.

🏈 UMass vs. Akron preview & score prediction

UMass is the worst team in the FBS. At 0-8, the Minutemen haven't won since last October’s victory over an FCS team, Wagner. The program’s last FBS win came against Army in 2023. 

In Jeff Sagarin’s rankings, which count both FBS and FCS programs, UMass clocks in at a dreadful 226th, which means the Minutemen are also worse than a majority of FCS programs. The Minutemen are also 2-6 against the spread this year after going a profitable 6-5-1 last season. 

UMass is a historically bad football team

I’m backing Akron to cover at home because UMass is historically bad. The Minutemen rank last in yards per play (3.9). Starting quarterback A.J. Hairston ranks dead last among eligible quarterbacks in passing efficiency at 87.4 – more than 20 points worse than the next-worst quarterback.

Akron isn’t great, but the Zips don’t need to be to win and cover on Tuesday. They come in at 159th in Sagarin’s rankings, below some FCS programs, but not nearly as many as UMass. His projections make Akron a 17.5-point betting favorite, which clears the market by just under a touchdown.

Add in the fact that UMass is playing on the road, where the Minutemen are 1-3 against the spread this season with an average margin of -34.3 (failing to cover by an average margin of 9.9), and we’ve got a recipe for success with Akron. Back them to cover the 10-point spread (-110, 52.4% probability) at BetMGM for a $9.09 profit on a $10 bet.

Score prediction: Akron 35, UMass 10

🆚 UMass vs. Akron matchup to watch

Ben Finley vs. UMass secondary

Akron quarterback Ben Finley isn’t great, but he isn’t so bad that our best college football betting sites don’t feel comfortable posting props for him. He ranks 110th in passing efficiency at 117.8 – still 30 points better than UMass’ starter – and is averaging 209.8 passing yards per contest on 6.5 yards per attempt.

If Akron is going to cover, the Zips will need plenty of production from Finley. Fortunately, Finley doesn’t have to worry about much of a pass rush, as UMass is one of three teams generating defensive havoc on less than 10% of opposing teams’ plays. The question then becomes whether he can beat the secondary.

While UMass head coach Joe Harasymiak built a successful pass defense at Rutgers that ranked a respectable 59th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2) last year, UMass ranks 118th this year (8.5) and 123rd over the last three weeks (9.1). I trust Finley to go Over 234.5 passing yards (53.3% probability) at FanDuel, with a $10 bet paying an $8.77 profit.

Best prop bet: Ben Finley Over 234.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📈 UMass vs. Akron betting trends

🌤️ UMass vs. Akron weather today

The weather for Tuesday’s action at InfoCision Stadium in Akron, Ohio shouldn’t be a factor. The forecast calls for sun and a 1% chance of precipitation with slight winds of about 8 mph. 

📺 How to watch UMass vs. Akron

• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 4
• Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: InfoCision Stadium (Akron, Ohio)
• TV: CBSSN