Texas vs. TCU Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11: Defenses Shine in Fort Worth
The Texas Longhorns visit the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday, and our best Texas vs. TCU prediction is calling for a long day for Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover. All our college football picks are based on the NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.
TCU quarterback Josh Hoover is gearing up for his fifth start of the season, showcasing a mixed performance record. While he has demonstrated prowess with two games exceeding 350 yards, he has also faced challenges in two contests, recording 187 yards or fewer. The inconsistency in Hoover's passing yardage suggests a variable performance level, making his upcoming start a crucial opportunity to establish more stability and contribute consistently to TCU's offensive efforts.
Texas' starting quarterback remains uncertain, with the decision between Maalik Murphy and Quinn Ewers pending. Although Ewers is the preferred option, Murphy serves as a reliable backup.
Regardless of who starts for Texas, we expect a big showing from Longhorns running back Jonathon Brooks. He’s run for 98 or more rushing yards in seven straight games.
Along with our other Week 11 college football predictions, here is our best Texas vs. TCU prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Texas vs. TCU prediction: Week 11
Under 54 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Hoover simply isn’t the guy to bring the Horned Frogs success in this matchup. The Longhorns have the 28th-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed per game, and they’re allowing just 17.6 points per contest, 15th-best in the country. Hoover has faced two other top-40 scoring defenses this season. He led his team to a combined 17 points in those two games.
The Longhorns will score at least 30 points in this game, no matter who is under center. Yet, even though they’ve scored at least 30 in all nine games this season, they’ve scored 40 points only once. The chances of them exploding for more than 40 on Saturday aren’t high, especially against a defense allowing just 26.6 points per game.
Another reason this will go Under is Brooks and the Longhorns’ rushing attack. The Horned Frogs are terrible against the run, allowing 156.3 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Longhorns are averaging 185.6 yards per game on the ground. They’re going to exploit this matchup whether Murphy or Ewers starts.
Focusing on the run will lead to long drives and a constantly running clock, which means the Horned Frogs are going to have very few chances to score the 20-plus points they’ll need to send this Over.
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Texas vs. TCU best odds
bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 53.5 | Under 53.5 | Under 53.5 | Under 54 | Under 54 |
| -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Caesars and bet365 are each offering a total of 54, while our three other best sports betting apps are offering 53.5.
The overwhelming majority of bettors are backing the Over. We expect this number to climb throughout the week. Though we envision this game finishing with a total in the 40s, it’s still worth waiting to see if you can get a better number or a price of +100 or better.
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Texas vs. TCU odds
Texas vs. TCU odds analysis
The Longhorns opened as 9.5-point favorites, and the spread has grown to 10.5. Around 75% of bettors are backing the Longhorns even as the starting quarterback remains up in the air. If Ewers is announced as the starter, we expect this number to jump to 14.5 at our best sports betting sites. If Murphy starts, we still expect this number to rise, but not by as much.
The total opened at 53.5, and it hasn’t moved at three of our best sportsbooks despite 72% of bettors backing the Over. The Longhorns have scored at least 30 points in every game this season, and the defense has allowed at least 24 in three of their last four. With how the Horned Frogs’ defense has looked, we expect this number to go up as kickoff approaches.
Texas vs. TCU game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 11 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 48 degrees, 6-mph winds, 3% chance of precipitation
Texas vs. TCU prediction made 11/9/2023 at 9:36 a.m. ET.
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