Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Today: Week 7 Picks & Odds

The Red River Rivalry debuts in the SEC on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET from the Cotton Bowl in Dallas as Texas meets Oklahoma.

• The Longhorns are one of the favorites by the college football championship odds
• Texas QB Quinn Ewers returns to the field looking to reignite his Heisman Trophy odds
• Both the Longhorns and Sooners are ranked in the AP Top 25, but Texas is a 17-point favorite

As part of our Week 7 college football predictions, I make my Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction with an eye on the No. 1 Longhorns covering this double-digit spread.

Texas vs. Oklahoma odds movement

Texas opened as a 14.5-point favorite at our college football betting sites. The line has since moved even further in the Longhorns' direction with Texas sitting between -16.5 and -17.

However, the Sooners have 58% of the money on them covering, with just 42% on Texas. The Over has 72% of the money, with the total hovering around 49.

Best Texas vs. Oklahoma picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Texas -14 (-112 via DraftKings) vs. Oklahoma ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Quinn Ewers Under 0.5 interceptions (-128 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas vs. Oklahoma against the spread prediction: Week 7

Texas to cover the spread: -14 (-112) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas vs. Oklahoma opening odds:

• Texas: -14.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
• Oklahoma: +14.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

There has not been much movement in this line this week, but the spread is up considerably from the summer lookahead line in mid-July when Texas was an 8.5-point favorite. However, that is a testament to how dominant the Longhorns have been, and there is still plenty of value backing the favorites with the line now at two touchdowns.

Texas offense wins out over Oklahoma’s defense

Something has to give in this strength vs. strength matchup between the Longhorns offense and Sooners defense. Texas has averaged 45.0 points per game, 513 yards per game, converted 52% of its third downs, and committed seven turnovers. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 16.0 points per game, 324 yards per game, a 30% third-down conversion rate, and forced 13 turnovers.

The difference in this game should be the Longhorns’ ability to make big plays. They averaged five 20-yard plays per game, which is tied for the fifth-most in FBS.

Ewers is comfortable against a Venables defense

Texas starting quarterback Quinn Ewers is expected back after missing the last two games with an oblique injury. 

This is Ewers’ third time facing the Brent Venables-led Sooners. Venables is considered one of the best defensive minds in the game after his long and successful tenure as Clemson’s defensive coordinator. However, Ewers threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns in a 49-0 beatdown of Oklahoma in 2022, and he followed that up by completing 31 of 37 passes for 346 yards and a touchdown last year. However, the Sooners edged the Longhorns 34-30 last year, largely because it won the turnover battle 3-0, with Ewers throwing two interceptions among his six incomplete passes. Rob Paul has a few of his favorite plays for the QB in his Quinn Ewers player prop bets.

Oklahoma might rank ninth in Defensive Efficiency (per ESPN Analytics), but it is heavily reliant on creating turnovers for much of its success, and I do not expect Texas to oblige in that department.

Don’t be scared off by the big spread

This is the third time since 1970 that Texas will be at least a two-touchdown favorite against Oklahoma. The Longhorns lost one of those games outright in 1996 but won the other two by an average of 32.5 points. 

Texas has also been favored by at least two touchdowns in 53 top-20 matchups since 2016, and covered the spread 58.5% of the time.

DraftKings is the only one of our top sports betting sites that offers a spread of -14 compared to -14.5, so I do not mind paying up slightly. Its -112 odds still net $8.93 in profits on a winning $10 wager. 

Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%

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Texas vs. Oklahoma best bet

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Quinn Ewers Under 0.5 interceptions (-128) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I consider this a contrarian play, given that Ewers has been picked off three times in the two meetings with Oklahoma. However, he has completed 73.4% of his passes this year and has hardly been under pressure, taking just one sack.

It is scary to think that Texas’s passing attack is more dangerous this year despite losing three starting receivers from last year. Six different wide receivers have eight-plus receptions and at least one touchdown. Five also have multiple touchdowns, and there are big-play threats up and down the depth chart, with five having at least one 40-yard catch. That is a handful for the Sooners to deal with, and I expect Ewers to quickly get into a rhythm, given the wealth of playmakers at his disposal.

The implied probability for him to go without an interception is as high as 61.54% based on bet365’s -160 odds, up from -145 earlier in the week. Thus, the best value is at Caesars, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $17.81. 

Best odds: -128 via Caesars | Implied probability: 56.14%

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Texas vs. Oklahoma odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Texas vs. Oklahoma game info

• When: Saturday, Oct. 12
• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Cotton Bowl, Dallas
• How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
• Weather: 93 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph S
• Favorite: Texas -14.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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