Early Texas vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Picks: Week 1

I love the underdogs in this Week 1 matchup of college football titans, and here's why.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: August 26, 2025 9:27 AM EDT • 5 minute read

Early Texas vs. Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Picks: Week 1 — Pictured: Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning takes the field as I make my best early Texas vs. Ohio State prediction, odds & picks. Photo by Jerome Miron via Imagn Images.

It's Week 1 of the college football season, and the year's biggest non-conference game may already be upon us. My early Texas vs. Ohio State prediction and picks dig into a rematch of last year's College Football Playoff semifinal.

As part of our college football Week 1 predictions, I examine why the AP No. 1 is a road underdog against the defending national champions. I also explain why the value has disappeared from the total.

Kickoff from Ohio Stadium is set for noon E.T. (FOX) on Saturday afternoon.

Best Texas vs. Ohio State early prediction: Week 1 💰

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Best odds: +106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.54%

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I was always inclined to back the Longhorns to win outright with my early predictions of Texas vs. Ohio State, but opting for their moneyline odds makes more sense than the point spread if no +3s ever reappear.

Though Ohio State beat Texas 28-14 on a neutral field in the CFP semifinals last season, several of its most impactful playmakers have graduated, transferred, or are now in the NFL (the Buckeyes had 14 players drafted from last year’s team).

There are too many unknowns for the Buckeyes. I do not expect Sayin to start slinging it all over the field against a Longhorns defense that returns 62% of its production from last year (ranks 31st), and which is projected to finish in the top two in Defensive SP+ for the second straight season.

Ohio State also has a new offensive coordinator in Brian Hartline and a new left tackle in Rice transfer Ethan Onianwa, who PFF graded as the 170th-best tackle last season.

Texas has much more stability entering this season, especially with Heisman Trophy favorite Arch Manning under center. Texas’ moneyline will remain my top play, but I will also hedge some on its point spread if the line ever gets back to +3 or higher before kickoff.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on college football or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Texas vs. Ohio State early odds 📈

See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every college football bowl game.

Texas vs. Ohio State opening odds

Moneyline: Texas +120 | Ohio State -145
Spread: Texas +3 (-110) | Ohio State -3 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)

Texas vs. Ohio State odds analysis

Although it was just a half-point line move, the fact that Texas is no longer at +3 at any of our top sports betting sites is a significant shift away from a key betting number.

This is the first time in modern college football history that the AP No. 1-ranked team is an underdog in the opening week. Because of that, I expect much more of a chance that the line continues to move in the Longhorns’ favor than jumping back to +3 or higher before kickoff.

BetMGM is already ahead of that curve with a spread of +1.5, one point lower than the highest spread available.

The biggest movement from the opening number has been in the total, which has plummeted as much as three points, from 50.5 to as low as 47.5. That is likely a reaction to Ohio State naming Julian Sayin its starting quarterback, as he has just 84 passing yards in four career appearances.

The only two of our best sports betting apps with their totals remaining as high as 48 are Caesars and bet365. With 62% of the early wagers on the Over at DraftKings, the total has a chance to tick back up some before kickoff unless sharps keep hammering the Under.

Texas vs. Ohio State injuries to watch 🚑

Texas vs. Ohio State betting insights 📊

Here are some betting insights from our college football odds on Tuesday morning

With a slight majority (52%) of the wagers on Texas, Ohio State has moved off the opener of -3 to trade at -2.5
Ohio State opened at -145 but is now trading between -120 and -135
57% of the wagers are the Over after the line moved from 50.5 to 47.5

How to watch Texas vs. Ohio State 📺

When: Saturday, Aug. 30
Kickoff: Noon ET
Where: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
How to watch: FOX
Weather: 78 degrees, 11% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph NNE
Favorite: Ohio State -2.5 (-105 via DraftKings)

Expert early Week 1 college football predictions, odds & picks 💡

College football betting odds pages 📃

CFP National Championship Odds	Heisman Trophy odds	College Football Playoff Odds	College Football Playoff Bracket
ACC Odds	Big Ten Odds	Big 12 Odds	SEC Odds

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Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”