TCU vs. Stanford Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight: Week 1

The ACC era begins tonight for the Stanford Cardinals as they host the TCU Horned Frogs at 10:30 p.m. ET as we offer our best TCU vs. Stanford prediction, picks, and odds.

The Horned Frogs are favored by 8.5 points across our best sports betting sites for tonight's contest between two teams looking to bounce back from losing seasons.

TCU became the first team since Texas in 2010 to follow a title appearance with a losing record after winning just five of 12 games last season. Stanford was even worse, posting a 3-9 record for the third consecutive season in the school's worst three-year run since the 1950s.

Best TCU vs. Stanford picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Over 59.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Savion Williams Over 59.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

TCU vs. Stanford prediction: Week 1

Over 59.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

TCU lost quarterback Chandler Morris to the transfer portal, but Josh Hoover returns with plenty of experience after starting the final six games of the regular season and throwing for over 2,200 yards and six touchdowns. He faces a Stanford defense that allowed 461.7 yards per game (bottom-five in the country) and ranked dead-last in passing yards allowed and EPA per play.

Stanford allowed 41 sacks last year and averaged 3.5 yards per carry. However, all five starters are back on the offensive line. The Cardinal should also not face much pressure from a TCU defense that ranked bottom-10 in pressure rate and pass-rush win rate and who lost its leader in pressures, Damonic Williams, as he transferred to Oklahoma.

TCU averaged 7.5 fewer points per game from 2022 to 2023, but this is still a three-star play, given its defense’s inability to force turnovers. TCU was 4-1 when forcing multiple turnovers last year and 1-6 when it did not. That should lead to a clean-played game with plenty of scoring chances.

BetMGM and FanDuel are the only two of our best sports betting apps that offer a total of fewer than 60 points, but FanDuel’s Over is juiced to -112. Thus, the best payout and number for Over backers is at BetMGM, where a $10 winning wager profits $9.09.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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TCU vs. Stanford player prop

Savion Williams Over 59.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

TCU returns its two leading pass catchers from a year ago in Williams (573 yards on 41 receptions) and JP Richardson (536 yards on 46 receptions). I expect TCU’s passing attack to succeed like last season when it finished with PFF’s 23rd-best receiving grade.

Williams has a capable quarterback throwing him the ball, too. Hoover threw for 300-plus yards in five of six starts from Week 6 on, while the offense was pass-happy with him attempting 46 passes per game. 

This is a four-star play, and it's one of my college football predictions and best bets for Friday. Stanford had PFF’s third-worst coverage grade among Power Five schools, and we're seeing Williams’ O/U set five yards higher at 64.5 (and are even juiced slightly higher to -115) at some of our best sportsbooks. 

The only better value out there besides what FanDuel offers is the +115 odds at DraftKings for Williams to have 70+ receiving yards. However, I cannot pass up the low O/U of 59.5 at FanDuel compared to the rest of the market.

A $10 winning wager pays out $18.77.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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TCU vs. Stanford odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

TCU vs. Stanford game info

• When: Friday, Aug. 30
• Kick off: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Stanford Stadium (Stanford, Calif.)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 75 degrees, 13-mph winds, 6% chance of precipitation
• Favorite: TCU -8.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

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