Early TCU vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Picks: Week 1

We've found a fitting best bet for Bill Belichick's all-anticipated North Carolina coaching debut.

Matt Jacob

Last Updated: August 25, 2025 2:09 PM EDT • 4 minute read

TCU vs. North Carolina Early Odds, Picks & Prediction for Week 1: Sept. 1 — Pictured: Bill Belichick during a meeting with Prime Minister of Croatia as we offer the TCU vs. North Carolina Early Odds, Picks & Prediction. Photo by Patrik Macek via Imagn Images

The much-anticipated Bill Belichick era at North Carolina kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on Labor Day when the Tar Heels host TCU in a non-conference clash.

When the Week 1 betting market opened early in the summer, the TCU vs. North Carolina early odds listed the host Horned Frogs as a short road favorite. Since then, a steady stream of TCU money has flooded the college football picks market, and now the visitors are laying more than a field goal across the board.

Should you expect more line movement as the week progresses? As part of our college football Week 1 predictions, I explore the possibilities.

💰 Best TCU vs. North Carolina early prediction: Week 1

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Prediction: Under 58.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%

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I like TCU to not only spoil Belichick’s debut at North Carolina but to do so by a comfortable margin. However, even the most optimal moneyline price (-152 at FanDuel) is too rich for my blood. And now that the point spread has shot past the key number of 3, I also can’t recommend a point-spread wager on the Horned Frogs. So, my TCU vs. North Carolina early prediction targets the total.

Obviously, Belichick has a sterling reputation as a defensive wizard. Plus, as we all know, it’s far easier for a new head coach to get his defensive system in place and rolling early in the season than it is to get a new offense to fire on all cylinders.

Speaking of defense, TCU last season held five opponents (including three of the last four) to 13 points or fewer. The Under cashed in each of those three contests.

When the total was 50.5 points or higher in UNC games last season, the Under was 8-2. In all eight instances, the Tar Heels and their opponents fell short of 58 combined points.

📈TCU vs. North Carolina early odds

See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites.

TCU vs. North Carolina opening odds

Moneyline: TCU -155 | North Carolina +130
Spread: TCU -1.5 (-110) | North Carolina +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under: Over 58.5 (-110) | Under 58.5 (-110)

TCU vs. North Carolina odds analysis

Belichick owns six Super Bowl rings and has a bronze bust on standby at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. However, college football oddsmakers and bettors don’t expect the coaching icon to be successful in his college debut, as the bulk of the point-spread action in this Labor Day contest has favored TCU.

The Horned Frogs, who opened as a slight 1.5-point favorite at our best sports betting apps, are now a consensus 3.5-point chalk at sportsbooks such as FanDuel. Translation: The point-spread value on TCU has vanished.

But there’s a chance it’ll reappear before kickoff, as the vast majority of the wagers on this standalone game are still to come.

A good chunk of those wagers likely will be made by recreational bettors who know Belichick’s track record and can’t fathom that he’s a decided underdog (at home, no less). If there is a lot of late buy-back on UNC, this line probably will tick back to at least TCU -3.

That, of course, would be a critical half-point move — and one that I would need before jumping on the Horned Frogs, whom I believe are the right side in this contest.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on college football or this week's best sportsbook promos.

🚑 TCU vs. North Carolina injuries to watch

📺 How to watch TCU vs North Carolina

When: Monday, Sept. 1
Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
Where: Keenan Stadium (Chapel Hill, N.C.)
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: 72 degrees, 38% chance of precipitation, NE winds 5 mph
Favorite: TCU (-3.5, -105 via BetMGM)

📃 College football betting odds pages

CFP National Championship Odds	Heisman Trophy odds	College Football Playoff Odds	College Football Playoff Bracket
ACC Odds	Big Ten Odds	Big 12 Odds	SEC Odds

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Written by:
Matt Jacob

Matt Jacob is a freelance writer and editor with more than three decades of professional experience working for an array of print and digital employers and clients. He first dove into the sports betting space in 2005 as a full-time handicapper and content producer. In addition to picking games 363 days a year, Matt wrote daily betting previews for all major professional and college sports, with those previews published (unbylined) on Yahoo’s website. He has since produced sports betting-related articles and picks pieces for outlets such as Forbes and the Philadelphia Inquirer. While Matt also has vast TV, radio and webcast experience, he is perhaps the only individual in the sports betting ecosystem without a podcast (for now, anyway). Instead, Matt’s opinions and borderline unhealthy fascination with betting trends can be found on Twitter @MattRJacob. As for actual wagering, Matt believes strongly in a longstanding principle: Only bet what you can afford to lose. Because in an industry where even the best of the best succeed less than 60% of the time, you’re going to lose … a lot. And the graduate of San Diego State University - aka “The Harvard of the West” - has shoeboxes full of losing tickets to prove it.