Penn State vs. West Virginia Prediction, Picks & odds: Week 1

The Penn State Nittany Lions make their first trip to Morgantown since 1992 to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in a high-profile Week 1 showdown.

There's plenty of data to lean on for our Penn State vs. West Virginia predictions since these two teams played last year.

The Nittany Lions ripped the hearts out of Mountaineers backers while scoring a touchdown with six seconds left to secure a backdoor cover as 20.5-point favorites during a 38-15 win in Happy Valley.

Penn State is ranked No. 8 in the AP poll, while West Virginia finished 9-4 after being picked to finish last in the 2023 Big 12 preseason poll.

We also analyzed this matchup further in our Big 12 predictions.

Best Penn State vs. West Virginia picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Penn State -8 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. West Virginia ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Drew Allar Over 209.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Penn State vs. West Virginia prediction: Week 1

Penn State -8 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Penn State is breaking in new offensive and defensive coordinators this season, but its offensive coordinator has at least logged plenty of familiarity with West Virginia’s system.

Andy Kotelnecki comes over from Kansas after being on the coaching staff of a Jayhawks team that dropped 55 points on West Virginia in Morgantown the last time the two schools met. 

Mountaineers' new-look offensive line

West Virginia lost its best two offensive linemen from last year to the NFL, and that doesn't bode well for its chances of success this year. The Mountaineers averaged just 3.7 yards per carry, and Penn State outgained them by 170 yards in last year’s meeting.

Franklin the cover machine

An expected raucous crowd in Morgantown is keeping this game to a single-digit spread, but I'm backing James Franklin’s team as a confident four-star play.

Franklin’s squads are 32-17-2 against the spread in August and September over the last 20 years, making him the most profitable FBS coach ATS in that span.  

BetMGM and FanDuel are still at Penn State -8.5, so Nittany Lions backers are getting a half-point better through DraftKings, where a $10 winning wager pays out $19.09.

I broke this game down even further in my college football predictions for Saturday.

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Drew Allar Over 209.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Drew Allar posted a 25:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season. But the Nittany Lions coaching staff limited him up for the most part, as he produced 12 big-time throws versus five turnover-worthy plays last season. 

I expect Kotelnecki will loosen the reigns on Allar, considering he posted a Total QBR of 75.0 or better in six games, and the team averaged 42 points per outing in those contests. Kotelnicki’s Jayhawks offense ranked ninth in 30-yard gains last year, so we should see some chunk plays from the Nittany Lions offense.

This is a three-star play, as Penn State ranked fourth in defensive SP+ last season, and 13 of its 20 players who played 200-plus snaps on that side of the ball return. The unit should give the ball back to the offense plenty.

FanDuel and bet365 are aligned with an O/U of 210.5 yards. So I'm instead making this play at DraftKings, where I would win if Allar’s passing yardage total landed squarely on 210 yards. That wager would lose at some of our other best sportsbooks.

A winning $10 wager pays out $18.70 as part of our Week 1 college football predictions.

Best odds: -115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 53.49%

Penn State vs. West Virginia odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Penn State vs. West Virginia game info

• When: Saturday, Aug. 31
• Kickoff: Noon ET 
• Where: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, W. Va.
• How to watch: FOX
• Weather: 81 degrees, 58% chance of precipitation, wind 6-mph SW
• Favorite: Penn State -8 (-110 via DraftKings)

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