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Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard drops to throw during the first quarter against the Marshall Thundering Herd at Ohio Stadium as we look at our Ohio State vs. Michigan State prediction.
Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard drops to throw during the first quarter against the Marshall Thundering Herd at Ohio Stadium. Photo by Joseph Maiorana/Imagn Images.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the three-plus touchdown favorites as they head on the road to clash with the Michigan State Spartans. The Buckeyes also enter Week 5 as the favorites in the college football championship odds.

Wagers barely favor the Buckeyes, as the Big Ten Championship odds front-runner is taking 55% of bets to cover the spread. This split support shows that this matchup isn't easy for sharps or the public to identify.

The Buckeyes have notched 35-plus-point wins in each of their last four games. However, they have yet to face a Power 4 team.

Meanwhile, the Spartans are fresh off a narrow 23-19 defeat at Boston College. Do they boast enough talent to keep this game close?

To complement the rest of our Big Ten predictions, here is our best Ohio State vs. Michigan State prediction, picks, and odds for Saturday:

Best Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Michigan State +23.5 (-105 via BetMGM) vs. Ohio State ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop pick: Aidan Chiles Over 1.5 interceptions (+210 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State vs. Michigan State against the spread prediction: Week 5

Michigans State to cover the spread: +23.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State vs. Michigan State opening odds:

All of our best sports betting sites are listing the spread at 23.5 points, with DraftKings and BetMGM offering prices better than -110 for the Spartans to cover.

BetMGM is featuring the best price of all, asking -105 compared to -108 from DraftKings.

Untested road favorites

There’s no denying the Buckeyes are a very good team this season. However, it’s nearly impossible to really gauge just how good they are after their first three games.

Marshall, Western Michigan, and Akron aren’t going to compete against many Power 4 teams this season. So winning by a combined 157-20 really tells us nothing.

The Spartans have faced two Power 4 opponents, defeating the Maryland Terrapins 27-24 in Maryland and falling to the Boston College Eagles 23-19 last week on a last-minute score. In last week’s game, Aidan Chiles threw three interceptions. Had he taken care of the football, the Spartans likely would have won the game.

Chiles will be up against a great defense this week, and it’s likely he'll throw multiple interceptions again. However, the Spartans are also going to score some points, and in a home prime-time game against the No. 3 team in the country, home-field advantage will be legit.

The Buckeyes will still win with ease, but the Spartans will keep it within three scores.

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State prop pick for Week 5

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Aidan Chiles Over 1.5 interceptions (+210) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chiles has thrown a staggering seven interceptions this season. Last week’s three-interception performance was already his third multi-interception game of the campaign.

The only time he didn’t throw at least two interceptions in a game was when the signal-caller faced the Prarie View A&M Panthers. Unfortunately for Chiles, the Buckeyes couldn’t be further from the Panthers.

The Buckeyes' defense has only registered two interceptions this season, but the unit is also only allowing 113.3 passing yards per game. Ohio State's opponents have essentially just rolled over and admitted defeat in each game, only attempting 24.3 passes per outing.

That won’t be the case on Saturday, as Chiles is positioned to make numerous mistakes, giving the Buckeyes a chance to pad their stats.

Best odds: +210 via bet365 | Implied probability: 32.26%

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State game info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 28
  • Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
  • How to watch: Peacock
  • Weather: 68 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, 12-mph wind
  • Favorite: Ohio State -23.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

College football betting odds pages

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