Notre Dame vs. Clemson Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 10: Will Defensive Struggle Ensue?
Since joining the ACC, the Fighting Irish have engaged in several memorable matchups against the Tigers, and we present our top Notre Dame vs. Clemson prediction, based on the most favorable college football odds available.
After a bye week, Notre Dame returned to action following a demanding four-game stretch against ranked opponents, when they maintained a 2-2 record. They exhibited a powerful resurgence against Pittsburgh, clinching a second consecutive victory over the Panthers with a substantial margin of over 42 points.
Clemson most recently lost 24-17 to NC State, a stumble for a team traditionally dominant with nine victories in the last 10 meetings in that series. Clemson has dropped back-to-back regular-season games for the first time since November 2011, and it owns a 4-4 record for the first time since 2010.
As part of our college football prediction for Week 10 and college football best bets, here is our best Notre Dame vs. Clemson prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Notre Dame vs. Clemson prediction: Week 10
Under 45.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
At first glance, the No. 12 Fighting Irish laying less than a field goal seems like an odd line given Clemson’s recent issues. But instead of taking the bait, we have plenty of reasons to believe a defensive struggle is on tap.
Clemson could be without arguably its most important offensive weapon, as running back Will Shipley is in the concussion protocol. Shipley leads the Tigers with 515 rushing yards and has also contributed two receiving touchdowns, so his potential absence would lower the team’s offensive ceiling considerably. Clemson was going to have a difficult time moving the ball regardless, as it ranks 119th in passing explosiveness, while Notre Dame ranks third in passing success rate.
Notre Dame’s 58-point output against Pittsburgh is eye-popping, but three non-offensive touchdowns skew that number, with a punt return and two defensive scores. The Fighting Irish have forced 10 turnovers in their last two games. While turning those turnovers into direct points is not sustainable every week, they should use that edge to thwart some of Clemson’s possessions, given that the Tigers are minus-3 in turnover margin this season.
Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman has also not looked as sharp recently, especially after throwing interceptions on the team’s first two possessions last week. Hartman has completed just 60% of his passes with a 4-5 TD-INT ratio over the previous four games.
Clemson will likely commit more defenders to the box to slow down Notre Dame’s running game, as the Fighting Irish’s Top 25 ranking in Passing Success Rate and Passing Explosiveness will likely regress toward the end of the season.
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Notre Dame vs. Clemson best odds
FanDuel (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 45.5 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) | Under (-110) |
As Under backers, FanDuel is the obvious go-to shop for our wager as the only one of the best sports betting apps offering a total of 45.5. This total is likely to come down even more if Shipley were to be ruled out, so we are firing away at the line of 45.5 while we can.
Clemson has an O/U record of 3-5, while the Under has cashed in four of Notre Dame’s nine games.
Notre Dame vs. Clemson odds
Notre Dame vs. Clemson odds analysis
Any line movement thus far has gone in the direction of the Under, as FanDuel saw the most significant change, lowering from an opening number of 48.5 to 45.5. All the other best sports betting sites got to their current number from an opening number of 46, but that movement could be injury-related with respect to Shipley, as 60% of the early wagers have still backed the Over.
All sportsbooks are in unison with Notre Dame as 2.5-point road favorites, with DraftKings (-112) and FanDuel (-115) charging more in juice to back the Fighting Irish. There is a big case of reverse line movement with the spread thus far, as the early betting splits are 81/19 in favor of Notre Dame, but the Fighting Irish have lowered from -3 or -3.5 in the early part of the week.
Notre Dame vs. Clemson game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 4 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Memorial Stadium, Clemson, SC
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 70 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph SSE
Notre Dame-Clemson prediction made 10/30/2023 at 4:15 p.m. ET.
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