North Texas vs. Texas State Prediction & Picks Today: First Responder Bowl Odds

Brenden Schaeffer makes his North Texas vs. Texas State prediction for the First Responder Bowl today, including a pick expecting a lot of offense from the favorites.

Brenden Schaeffer

Last updated: January 3, 2025 1:08 PM EST • 5 min read

Texas State Bobcats head coach G.J. Kinne reacts after a touchdown against the Baylor Bears as we look at our North Texas vs. Texas State prediction. — Texas State Bobcats head coach G.J. Kinne reacts after a touchdown against the Baylor Bears. Photo by Raymond Carlin III/Imagn Images.

Following a 5-1 start, North Texas staggered to five consecutive losses before besting lowly Temple to barely earn bowl eligibility.

Now the point spread for the First Responder Bowl between North Texas and Texas State has been shifting significantly in the Bobcats' direction. Our North Texas vs. Texas State prediction aligns with that thinking, with the best college football betting sites showing the Bobcats as massive favorites.

The clash is set for J. Ford Stadium in Dallas on Friday at 4 p.m. ET (ESPN), and this pick is among our college bowl game predictions this week.

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds.

North Texas vs. Texas State prediction & best pick: First Responder Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Against the spread pick: Texas State -13.5 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. North Texas ⭐⭐⭐⭐
My best pick: Texas State Over 37.5 points (-135 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

North Texas vs. Texas State ATS prediction

Texas State to cover the spread: -13.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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North Texas QB Chandler Morris, one of the most prolific passers in the country, could have mitigated the issues of a woeful Mean Green defense to keep things competitive - but he transferred to Virginia. Even with Morris, North Texas was 4-8 against the spread with four of its six losses coming by double-digits. This feels like a lost cause without him.

The Mean Green’s defense is indefensible

North Texas ranks 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Mean Green are bad against the run, allowing 207.2 yards per game (117th in FBS). They’re bad against the pass, allowing 268.4 yards per game (121st in FBS).

Despite uncertainty over how much senior quarterback Jordan McCloud will play in this game, freshman QB Brad Jackson has similar dual-threat capabilities to carry the day against the woeful North Texas defense.

North Texas vs. Texas State best pick

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Texas State Over 37.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -135 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 57.45%

North Texas ranks 120th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 35.8 points per game. Texas State ranks 4th in the nation in scoring, averaging 37.4 PPG overall and a whopping 49.0 PPG over its last three games.

The Bobcats rank in the top 40 in seconds per play and have sped up the pace even more over their last three games, running a play every 22.6 seconds (11th in FBS). That could be a recipe for points against one of the least efficient defenses in college football.

Texas State scored 38 or more points eight times this season.

Over 37.5 points (-135) is an alternate team total offered by DraftKings and comes as a five-star recommendation. As a four-star play, we also don’t mind the odds boost to -102 on Over 38.5 points at FanDuel.

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North Texas vs. Texas State line movement

The spread for this Duke's Mayo Bowl clash started with Texas State as the 10.5-point favorites, and the line has progressively been moving even more significantly in that direction. Texas State is now widely a 14.5-point favorite in the hours before kickoff.

Meanwhile, the total has gone on a journey after opening at 67.5, plunging all the way to 60.5 before rebounding to 64.5

North Texas vs. Texas State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

North Texas vs. Texas State live odds

North Texas vs. Texas State opening odds:

North Texas: +7.5 (-110)
Texas State: -7.5 (-110)

North Texas vs. Texas State injuries

First Responder Bowl game info

When: Friday, Jan. 2
Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: 63 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph E
Favorite: Texas State -13.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer

Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.