New Mexico vs. Arizona Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 1

It’s a rarity for a Week 1 matchup to have any actual data on one of the teams.

But trust me when I say that nothing we learned about the Lobos in Week 0 will do them any favors for our New Mexico vs. Arizona prediction. The Wildcats are favored by 30 at our top college football betting sites for a reason.

New Mexico got popped by FCS Montana State on their home field to open the season - and the way it happened doesn’t inspire us that the Lobos will slow down their former running back in our Week 1 college football predictions.

A trip to Tucson against the high-octane Wildcats could leave the Lobos in bad shape, especially with Arizona having a dark-horse Heisman Trophy odds contender at QB.

Best New Mexico vs. Arizona picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Arizona -30 (-108 via DraftKings) vs. New Mexico ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

New Mexico vs. Arizona prediction: Week 1

Arizona -30 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Arizona was a top-20 offense in yards per game across FBS last year and returns its top quarterback and an NFL-caliber wide receiver. Considering the Lobos surrendered 567 yards of total offense a week ago to Montana State, Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan should give the New Mexico defense fits.

Brent Brennan, the Wildcats’ new head coach, brings an offensive-minded approach that should help an experienced Arizona offense exploit a lot of weaknesses in defenses. 

Clearly, the Lobos have plenty to pick from. On the other side of the ball, Arizona is coming off a season in which it nearly cut its opponents’ points per game average in half.

Find odds in your favor

This is an important pick to make sure you’re shopping around for the best line because of some key differences across our best sportsbooks.

If you’re looking to lay the points with Arizona, avoid BetMGM, Caesars and bet365. All three books feature the Wildcats at -30.5 (-110).

The Arizona -30 line at DraftKings features -108 odds, which is our preferred value compared to the price of effectively buying an additional half-point down to FanDuel’s line of -29.5 with -115 odds.

We like the Wildcats as a four-star play up to -30.5, and as a three-star recommendation up to -33.5. If Arizona covers, a $10 bet pays a $9.26 profit.

Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%

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New Mexico vs. Arizona player prop

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 66.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran for 1,190 yards last year as the lead back for New Mexico. He’ll open his fifth-year senior campaign with Arizona toting the rock against the team with whom he had his breakthrough season a year ago.

Although Arizona funneled more of its offensive production through the air last season, Croskey-Merritt shouldn’t require a ton of work to dice up his old teammates.

Revenge Game?

Croskey-Merritt averaged 6.3 YPC for the Lobos last season. Now with Arizona, he immediately faces his old team, which got absolutely pummeled in the run game against Montana State last week.

The Bobcats racked up 362 rushing yards against New Mexico. Though the narrative of a scorned defense rising to the occasion to stifle their former teammate sounds compelling, nothing we know about this Lobos unit suggests they can do it.

Facing Mountain West defenses as a Lobo last year, Croskey-Merritt cruised past this rushing line eight times. If he does it against his former team, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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New Mexico vs. Arizona odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

New Mexico vs. Arizona game info

• When: Saturday, Aug. 31
• Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Ariz.)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 85 degrees, 4-mph winds, 28% chance of precipitation
• Favorite: Arizona -30.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

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