Nebraska vs. Ohio State Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 9

Both Ohio State and Nebraska are coming off losses in Big Ten play when the two meet at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday at noon ET (FOX), but can the Buckeyes cover as 25.5-point favorites?

• Our Nebraska vs. Ohio State prediction expects the Buckeyes to look worthy of their -700 College Football Playoff odds, but winning by more than three scores is a big ask
• Despite Ohio State's loss to Oregon, the Buckeyes remain a college football championship odds favorite
• Nebraska is coming off a loss to Indiana led by Kurtis Rourke, who has the second-shortest Heisman Trophy odds in the Big Ten

In the first game of our Week 9 college football predictions featuring a team ranked in the top 10 of the AP Top 25, it's hard to imagine Matt Rhule's team having a second straight no-show. 

Best Nebraska vs. Ohio State picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Nebraska +25.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Ohio State ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Jeremiah Smith Over 74.5 receiving yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Nebraska vs. Ohio State against the spread prediction: Week 9

Nebraska to cover the spread: +25.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Nebraska vs. Ohio State opening odds:

• Nebraska: +24.5 (-110)
• Ohio State: -24.5 (-110)

Had the Cornhuskers not gotten pants'd by Indiana during the Big Noon game of FOX last week, I'm not so sure this spread would be this gargantuan. I know it's the Buckeyes, but 25.5 points is huge. 

Nebraska is 4-2-1 ATS this season and has a defense that can keep this one close enough for the Cornhuskers to cover the spread. I think it ends up somewhere in the ballpark of a 31-13 win for Ohio State.

While the Buckeyes are loaded on offense, Nebraska is seventh in SP+ on defense and giving up the 18th-fewest yards per game in the country (304.3). Ohio State will also be without potential first-round left tackle Josh Simmons.

That should open things up for a Cornhuskers front seven led by Ty Robinson and James Williams to get after Will Howard. Those two have Nebraska 15th in the country in sacks (21) and top 30 in both EPA per rush and dropback.

Johnson & Johnson: inject Emmett into this offense

It's no secret that Dylan Raiola isn't Patrick Mahomes, no matter how hard he tries. That's why for Nebraska to cover this spread, Rhule will need to lean on his running back Emmett Johnson, along with Dante Dowdell, with Rahmir Johnson out. 

Dowdell leads the team in rushing (346), but Emmett Johnson is averaging a team-high 3.28 yards after contact with a team-best three runs of 15-plus yards, per PFF. And with Rahmir out, Emmett can take on his pass-catching role out of the backfield - he's fourth on the team in yards per route run (1.75).

If Johnson can provide enough explosive plays against Ohio State, Nebraska should put up the points to cover. If they do, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Nebraska vs. Ohio State best bet

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Jeremiah Smith Over 74.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Even in Ohio State's loss to Oregon, a game in which the broadcast called it a "quiet' performance from Jeremiah Smith, the true freshman caught nine passes for 100 yards and a score.

He's scored in every game this season and leads the Buckeyes in touchdowns (8), which is why his odds are as short as -170 to score against Nebraska. But his receiving yards line is still reasonably low at 74.5 - a number he's topped in five of six games.

Smith is eighth in the country in yards per route (3.47) and fifth in NFL QB rating when targeted (147.3), so you know Howard will be looking in his direction. If he goes Over 74.5 yards, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Nebraska vs. Ohio State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Nebraska vs. Ohio State game info

• When: Saturday, Oct. 26
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Where: Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
• How to watch: FOX
• Weather: 55 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph N
• Favorite: Ohio State -25.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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