College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 8: Back Baylor Off a Bye

Baylor vs. Cincinnati has caught our eye as we make our best college football upset picks for Week 8.

Mike Spector

Last updated: October 19, 2023 1:54 PM EDT • 6 min read

Three undefeated college football teams picked up their first losses in Week 7 as upsets continue to pile up. Check out our top college football upset picks for Week 8 based on the best NCAAF odds.

Oregon failed to upset Washington in Week 7, as Ducks QB Bo Nix fell to 0-6 in his career on the road against AP Top 10 teams. Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. connected with wideout Rome Odunze with under two minutes remaining to preserve Washington's unblemished record and hand Oregon its first loss of the season.

Stanford shocked Colorado as a 13.5-point underdog with a 46-43 overtime victory. The Cardinal came back from a 29-0 halftime deficit to record the fourth-largest comeback in Pac-12 history and the biggest in school history. It also marked Colorado's largest lead blown in program history.

Here are our best college football upset picks for Week 8 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football upset picks: Week 8

Baylor (+115 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) vs. Cincinnati ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Minnesota (+160 via bet365) vs. Iowa ⭐⭐⭐
UConn (+115 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) vs. South Florida ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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College football upset predictions

Baylor vs. Cincinnati (+115 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cincinnati is one of two winless teams in the Big 12, losing its first three conference games with a -42 point differential. The Bearcats have averaged just 14.3 points in their three conference games, and quarterback Emory Jones has completed fewer than 54% of his passes in those contests, with a 4-5 TD-INT ratio.

Baylor is just 8-11 since winning the Big 12 two years ago, and it needed a 28-point third-quarter comeback against UCF to secure one of its two wins this season. However, the Bears are rested off a bye, and quarterback Blake Shapen is healthy after missing three games. We are making this a four-star play, as we prefer Shapen’s ability to take care of the football (four touchdowns to no interceptions), as opposed to Jones, who has at least one interception in every game against an FBS opponent this season. But it is not like Shapen is a game manager who dinks and dunks all over the field, as he has thrown for 293 or more yards in all three starts this season.

The lookahead line for this game at the best sports betting sites was Baylor +3.5, but the line has since been bet through the key number of three, and the Bears are as low as +2 at DraftKings. That line movement has us confident that Baylor can pull the outright upset, and we are getting the best number at a handful of sportsbooks (BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365).

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Minnesota vs. Iowa (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Iowa prevailed in its strength vs. strength matchup against Wisconsin last week. The Hawkeyes entered tied for the fewest rushing touchdowns in FBS (one) while the Badgers averaged a Big Ten-best 204 rushing yards and had 15 rushing touchdowns entering the game. The Hawkeyes held Wisconsin to 104 rushing yards on 3.7 yards per carry, while the Badgers mustered just two field goals.

However, Iowa's lack of a passing attack will eventually cost it a game and that's the reason for making a Golden Gophers upset a three-star play. Quarterback Deacon Hill has completed 38.6% of his passes and averaged a paltry 4.4 yards per attempt in relief of the injured Cade McNamara. Thus, Minnesota’s best chance for its first road win at Iowa since 1999 is this week against arguably the most one-dimensional offense in the country.

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UConn vs. South Florida (+115 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

UConn is coming off its first victory of the season in Week 6, a 38-31 road win at Rice, and last week’s bye week gave it even more time to analyze what worked well in snapping a five-game losing streak to start the season. However, one can argue that the Huskies’ momentum has been building for over two weeks, as UConn outgained Utah State by 60 yards in a one-point loss the week prior.

The Huskies have found something offensively with quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson, who has multiple touchdown passes in back-to-back weeks while completing 74.5% of his passes and is coming off his best QBR (91.2) in any game this season. We expect the Huskies to outscore a South Florida team that was embarrassed as three-point favorites in a 56-14 loss to FAU last week. The Bulls entered that game already ranked outside the Top 110 in Pass Success defense and PFF coverage grade, so Roberson should have a big day leading the Huskies to victory.

Bettors can choose from BetMGM, Caesars, or bet365 for the best number on the underdogs, as all the other best sports betting sites outside of DraftKings (+114) have odds of +108 or lower.

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College football upset picks made 10/17/2023 at 6:09 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”