College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 12: Will Miami End Louisville’s CFP Chances?
We went 2-1 with our upset picks for another profitable showing last week, and here is another trio of college football upset picks for Week 12 that are based on the best NCAAF odds from our best college football betting sites.
We selected Virginia Tech as a +100 underdog at the perfect time last week. The Hokies actually became 2.5-point favorites right before kickoff.
Our most successful pick was UCF at +115, as they convincingly outplayed No. 15 Oklahoma State in a 45-3 victory. This marked the highest-ranked team the Knights had defeated in the regular season since 2009.
To accompany all of our college football predictions for Week 12, here are our best college football upset picks for Week 12 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football upset picks: Week 12
- Miami (+100 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) vs. Louisville ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Appalachian State (+360 via BetRivers) vs. James Madison ⭐⭐⭐
- Tulsa (+126 via FanDuel) vs. North Texas ⭐⭐⭐
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College football upset predictions
Miami vs. Louisville (+100 via BetMGM, Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Louisville has a lot to play for this week. A win would clinch its first 10-win season since 2013 and secure its first-ever appearance in the ACC Championship Game.
The Cardinals looked weary in last week’s seven-point victory over Virginia, trailing by a touchdown with under eight minutes to go. All the pressure is on Louisville this week and is likely the reason for this curiously-low spread.
However, Miami earned much respect in going on the road and taking a Florida State team that had won 15 straight games down to the final possession. In addition, we have seen the heat and humidity late in the season in Florida take its toll on visiting teams who are not that used to that climate.
The Hurricanes dominated the line of scrimmage for much of the game against the Seminoles, sacking quarterback Jordan Travis three times and recording nine tackles for loss while holding Florida State to 57 rushing yards. The Hurricanes proved they were worthy of their top 15 ranking (entering Week 11) in Line Yards on both sides of the ball, and their physicality should give Louisville fits.
Miami is a team that has seemingly played up to its competition all year, with a win over then-No. 23 Texas A&M and Clemson, in addition to head-scratching losses to Georgia Tech and NC State (by 14 points). The Cardinals will get the Hurricanes’ best shot in an attempt to bury their College Football Playoff hopes, and we prefer to back the team with nothing to lose as opposed to the one with everything on the line.
Miami has won both games as a home underdog this year, and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the Hurricanes’ last five games at Hard Rock Stadium. These trends make the plus-money odds at BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 even more enticing, and we are getting ahead of any line movement towards Miami, as some of our other best sports betting apps have this game as a virtual pick’em with -110 moneyline odds on either side.
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Appalachian State vs. James Madison (+360 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
This is one of the boldest predictions of our weekly upset picks column for the season, calling for the first loss of one of the remaining seven unbeaten teams left in the country. However, Appalachian State is playing its best football of the season, so instead of taking the safer play with the +11 points, we are taking a flier on its loftier moneyline odds.
The Mountaineers have won three consecutive games by an average of 20 points, with two of those victories coming against teams currently .500 or better. Appalachian State is undervalued because of a 3-4 start, but six of those games were decided by one possession, including a double-overtime loss to the then-No. 17 ranked North Carolina.
Appalachian State’s offense entered last week ranked in the top 27 in the country in Line Yards, Pass Success, Havoc, and Quality Drives. Its 28th-ranked offense in SP+ should give the Dukes fits, considering James Madison has faced just one top-40 offense in the previous seven weeks. Speaking of SP+ rankings, only two teams in the country made a higher jump than the Mountaineers’ 12-spot leap from 71st to 59th this week.
FanDuel and bet365 have the next-shortest odds at +350, so we are getting value at +360 through BetRivers.
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Tulsa vs. North Texas (+126 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Tulsa was a two-point conversion attempt away from taking AP-ranked Tulane to overtime last week, a team in the conversation for a second consecutive New Year’s Day Bowl appearance.
The Golden Hurricane used a quarterback tandem of Kirk Francis and Braylon Braxton last week, and even in limited action, Francis’ 345 passing yards were the second-most by a freshman in school history. Francis makes Tulsa’s offense more explosive, as evident by the 51-yard chunk play to wide receiver Kamdyn Benjamin, which was the first play of 40-plus yards against Tulane’s defense this year.
The Mean Green now have to prepare for two quarterbacks this week, and each has a different skill set. We expect Tulsa to end its five-game losing streak this week (and four-game losing streak as home underdogs) against a North Texas team on its own four-game losing streak, mainly because it cannot stop anyone defensively.
The Mean Green defense entered last week ranked 117th or worse in Line Yards, Rush Success, Havoc, Finishing Drives, and Quality Drives, and then allowed 45 points and 552 total yards of offense to SMU.
Three of our best sports betting sites have Tulsa at +115 moneyline odds, making the +126 found at FanDuel an excellent value in comparison.
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College football upset picks made 11/13/2023 at 4:18 p.m. ET.
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