College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 11: Can BYU Prevail Over Iowa State?

We expect Boston College's win streak to grind to a halt as we look at our college football upset picks for Week 11.

Mike Spector

Last updated: November 11, 2023 4:17 PM EST • 6 min read

Even after all the upsets through the first 10 weeks of the college football season, there are still seven undefeated teams, as we share our top college football upset picks for Week 11. All our college football picks are based on the NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.

In Week 10, Army achieved an impressive 23-3 victory over Air Force at home.

Despite entering the game with an unblemished 8-0 record, the Falcons faced a surprising upset, marking their first loss since 1985 and ending a remarkable 13-game winning streak. The upset occurred despite the team being heavily favored by 18.5 points. The turning point in the game was the Falcons committing a season-high six turnovers, a significant factor that contributed to their unexpected defeat, highlighting the impact of costly mistakes on their previously flawless record.

While ou college football best bets article accurately predicted that the Black Knights would cover the large spread in last week's 4-0 sweep, we stopped short of forecasting the outright victory.

Are there any historic upsets in store for this week?

Check out our college football Week 11 predictions and college football best bets, to accompany our best college football upset picks for Week 11 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football upset picks: Week 11

Virginia Tech (+100 via Caesars, bet365) vs. Boston College ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UCF (+115 via Caesars, bet365) vs. Oklahoma State ⭐⭐⭐
BYU (+220 via FanDuel, BetMGM) vs. Iowa State ⭐⭐⭐

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College football upset predictions

Virginia Tech vs. Boston College (+100 via Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Virginia Tech was amid a mid-season turnaround, having won three of four games, before being Louisville’s latest victim in its historic season last week. The Hokies should not be undervalued following a 34-3 road loss to the Cardinals, much like Boston College should not be overvalued for a 17-10 road win at Syracuse when Orange starting quarterback Garrett Shrader was ruled out with an injury just hours before the game.

Boston College has won five consecutive games, but four of those victories have been by seven or fewer points and came against opponents with a combined record of 15-30. Virginia Tech has the perfect formula for a road upset, as quarterback Kyron Drones has taken care of the football (just two interceptions on the season) while hitting on explosive passing plays (the Hokies entered last week averaging more than three 20-plus yard pass plays per game). In addition, before Louisville rushed for 231 yards against them, the Hokies ranked in the top 20 among FBS teams defensively in Havoc Rate and Success Rate Allowed.

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The home team has won each of the last four meetings between these two teams, but oddsmakers are tipping their hand with the Hokies as minimal one-point underdogs when facing a team on the second-longest winning streak in the conference. Caesars and bet365 are the only shops from our best sports betting apps where one can back the Hokies at plus-money odds, as other competitors like BetMGM peg this game as a virtual pick’em (-110 moneyline odds for each team).

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UCF vs. Oklahoma State (+115 via Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Oklahoma State is coming off its most emotional game of the season, a 27-24 win over Oklahoma in the last scheduled Bedlam rivalry game for the foreseeable future. Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy now has the unenviable task of getting his Cowboys players refocused after such a meaningful victory. UCF is a dangerous opponent, especially at the “Bounce House.”

Dark horse Heisman candidate Ollie Gordon II carried 33 times against Oklahoma and has averaged 29 rushing attempts over the last four games. He may have some tired legs entering a matchup with the Knights, who will likely stack the box and rely on a pass defense that ranks in the top 50 in Pass Success to hold up in coverage. Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has averaged 49 rushing yards and a touchdown the last two weeks, and his explosiveness in the read option game, along with running back RJ Harvey (876 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns), is an excellent formula to keep Oklahoma State’s powerful offense on the sidelines.

UCF’s offense entered last week ranked in the top 27 nationally in both Rush and Pass Success and could turn this game into a track meet against a Cowboys team that might be overlooking them at 1-5 in league play.

BetRivers has odds as short as +102 to back UCF, so the +115 odds offered at Caesars and bet365 look like a steal in comparison.

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BYU vs. Iowa State (+220 via FanDuel, BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Iowa State's hopes of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game were significantly diminished following a 28-21 loss to Kansas last week. With a demanding away game awaiting ISU in Week 11, it is not the time for the team to dwell on its recent setback.

This is a trap game for the Cyclones, with a home date against Texas looming next week. BYU’s key to an upset is pressuring Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht, who entered last week with a 31.9% pressure rate and a 5.5-yard-per-attempt average despite a lofty 10.6 ADOT when pressured. The Cougars may rank in the bottom three of the Big 12 in rushing yards allowed per game, but they are one of nine teams in the league to allow fewer than 27 points per game, and that average drops to 14.3 points per game allowed at home.

BYU’s offensive numbers are abysmal, as it ranks outside the top 120 in Line Yards and Rush Success. However, if it muddies up the game, it has more than a puncher’s chance of an upset, considering its defense entered last week in the top 40 in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives Allowed. Iowa State has not visited Provo since 1973, and it cannot overlook a BYU team that ranks in the top 70 in both Offensive and Defensive SP+.

DraftKings and bet365 are two of our best sports betting sites to offer +205 odds to back the Cougars, so the best value is found at FanDuel and BetMGM.

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College football upset picks made 11/6/2023 at 4:08 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”