SEC Predictions, Odds & Best Bets Week 1

Can championship-contender Georgia roll over Clemson? Mike Spector looks at that and more in his SEC preditions.

Mike Spector

Last updated: August 31, 2024 3:36 PM EDT • 6 min read

Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Jahdae Walker races with tight end Jake Johnson after a touchdown against the Mississippi Rebels as we look at our SEC predictions. — Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Jahdae Walker races with tight end Jake Johnson after a touchdown against the Mississippi Rebels. Photo by Petre Thomas/USA TODAY Sport.

We've never seen a conference as dominant as the SEC projects to be, with four of the top six teams in the preseason AP Top 25 and nine in the top 20. College football fans are treated to their first look at the expanded 16-team conference in Week 1, with Georgia leading the SEC Championship odds.

SEC teams are involved in the only three ranked vs. ranked matchups on the Week 1 slate. However, while the No. 13 LSU Tigers face the No. 23 USC Trojans at a neutral site in Las Vegas on Sunday—which is featured in our college football parlay for Week 1—my SEC predictions for Week 1 involve two of the ranked teams in action on Saturday.

The Georgia Bulldogs look to become the sixth team since 1980 to start and finish the season as the AP No. 1, and they face a tough non-conference test against the Clemson Tigers.

Elsewhere, the Mike Elko era at Texas A&M begins with a high-profile contest against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as he coaches against Riley Leonard his quarterback at Duke from last year.

SEC best bets: Week 1

College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Georgia -12.5 (-105 via FanDuel) vs. Clemson ⭐⭐⭐
Florida ML (+120 via BetMGM) vs. Miami ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Notre Dame team total Under 20.5 (+110 via bet365) vs. Texas A&M ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best SEC predictions this week

College football picks made Xday; odds subject to change.

Georgia -12.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Outside of the service academies who can't take transfers from the portal, Clemson is the only school that didn't add a single player from the portal.

However, as head coach Dabo Swinney said, it wasn't for a lack of trying, as the Tigers identified certain players who would have fit their scheme. While some would argue a team relatively intact like Clemson that ranks 33rd in returning production would have its advantages early in the season, it also makes the Tigers easily scoutable, and few head coaches prepare their teams like Georgia’s Kirby Smart.

The most significant reason for this four-star play is that while the NFL usually raids Georgia’s stout defense every year, the Bulldogs return nine of their top 13 tacklers from last season. That's a primary reason why they're leading the college football championship odds.

Of course, Carson Beck helps too, and he sits second in the Heisman odds.

Late Thursday night, FanDuel dropped its line from -13.5 while most other best sports betting sites remained firm at that original spread.

I'm not concerned about what that suggests for sharp movement, as the Bulldogs are only receiving 48% of the wagers. However, I expect they will be a public play and get the majority of the bets as we get closer to kickoff, so the 12.5s may not last long.

A $10 winning wager pays out $19.52 as part of our Week 1 college football predictions.

I also took an even deeper dive into this matchup in my Clemson vs. Georgia prediction.

Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Florida ML (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Florida is expected to endure another down year given its murderous schedule (the hardest in the country, according to ESPN Analytics). But I want no part of fading a team that's been an underdog at home just six times since 2018, winning four of those matchups outright.

There's excitement surrounding Miami after the addition of quarterback Cam Ward in the transfer portal. But the Hurricanes are still projected as just the fourth-best team in a conference that couldn't even get its undefeated champion into the College Football Playoff last year.

Florida backers are receiving as much as $0.60 better value for every $10 wagered when shopping at BetMGM. A $10 wager there would return $12 in profit compared to $11.40 with DraftKings’ +114 odds.

Best odds: +120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 45.45%

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Notre Dame team total Under 20.5 (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

A&M head coach Mike Elko has plenty of tape on Notre Dame’s offense to study after facing the Fighting Irish last year (the Blue Devils held them to 21 points). He also knows Riley Leonard inside and out after being his head coach the last two seasons.

Also, few things can wreck an offensive game plan like a left tackle who struggles to run block and pass protect, and Notre Dame is down to its second-string left tackle with no starting experience after losing Charles Jagusah to a season-ending pectoral injury.

Notre Dame’s offense should get better as the season progresses. But Leonard and tight end Mitchell Evans, arguably the team's two best players, are in their first game action after both of their seasons concluded with injuries before November last year.

I would not put anyone off heading to FanDuel and wagering on Notre Dame's team total Under 21.5 at -113 odds, as their line crosses a key number of 21 points. However, bet365’s plus-money odds for the Fighting Irish to be held to 20 or fewer points swayed me. Especially after I saw DraftKings had its “No” for the “both Teams to score 20-plus points” prop juiced to -155.

I am wagering $10 on this play in the hopes of turning it into a $21 payout.

Best odds: +110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”