SEC Best Bets, Odds for College Football Week 5: Will Mertz’s Struggles Against Top Competition Continue?
An SEC team has won each of the last four college football national championships, so naturally, it is often the most talked about and scrutinized conference. We have scoured the odds and various markets for all seven SEC college football games for Week 5 and deliver our best bets based on the best NCAAF odds.
After LSU and Alabama lost key early non-conference games, it seemed the SEC was being dismissed, especially with the wave of Pac-12 schools flooding the AP poll. However, the number of SEC teams ranked in the AP top 25 has risen from five to six, and now seven over the last three weeks, highlighted by mainstay Georgia, who is firmly cemented in the top spot after receiving 55 of 63 first-place votes.
Here are our SEC college football best bets for Saturday of Week 5 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
SEC best bets for college football Week 5
- Graham Mertz (Florida) Over 0.5 interceptions vs. Kentucky (-125 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jayden Daniels Over 273.5 passing yards vs. Ole Miss (-115 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Mississippi State team total Over 14 points vs. Alabama (+115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Texas A&M-Arkansas Under 54.5 (-110 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
SEC schedule and odds Week 5
(odds via Caesars)
- Florida vs. Kentucky (-1)
- Texas A&M (-6.5) vs. Arkansas
- Georgia (-14.5) vs. Auburn
- Missouri (-13.5) vs. Vanderbilt
- LSU (-2.5) vs. Ole Miss
- South Carolina vs. Tennessee (-11.5)
- Alabama (-14.5) vs. Mississippi State
SEC college football predictions
Graham Mertz (Florida) Over 0.5 interceptions vs. Kentucky (-125 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz was treated rudely in his first game as Gators quarterback, getting sacked five times and picked off once in a 24-11 road loss to Utah. Going back to last season with the Badgers, Mertz has thrown at least one interception in five of his previous six road games. And while Kentucky is not an AP top 25 team yet, they will be if they win this matchup at home, and that does not bode well for Mertz’s chances of success.
Entering this season, against AP-ranked opponents, Mertz averaged a 38 total QBR, a 54% completion percentage, a 5% interception percentage, and five touchdowns against 12 interceptions, all of which ranks last among FBS quarterbacks.
DraftKings and bet365 offer the same -125 odds for Mertz to throw an interception, which trump the -135 odds found at Caesars.
Jayden Daniels Over 273.5 passing yards vs. Ole Miss (-115 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Expect plenty of fireworks when LSU and Ole Miss meet on the gridiron on Saturday, especially on the LSU side, as the team has used the Rebels’ fast pace to its advantage and scored 40-plus points in five of the previous six matchups. Daniels is on pace to throw for 3,888 yards and 36 touchdowns in the regular season, per LSU staff writer Preston Guy, which would rank him 11th and 16th in those categories in SEC history. And Daniels has an 87.4 passing grade and made eight times as many big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays this season, per PFF.
This is a four-star play for Daniels to exceed his passing yards total, as he has completed nearly three out of every four passes (72.6% completion percentage). And while his 13.3% turnover-worthy play rate is worrisome when he is pressured, he is facing an Ole Miss defense that ranks 115th in the country in passing downs success rate. The Rebels are an overvalued defense after playing Tulane with quarterback Michael Pratt out injured and an Alabama team with arguably its worst quarterback play in the Nick Saban era.
There is little difference among the sportsbooks for this wager, as Caesars offers the same O/U of 273.5 passing yards at a similar price (-117).
Mississippi State team total Over 14 points vs. Alabama (+115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Alabama head coach Nick Saban is not getting the best quarterback play, and remains committed to grinding out wins on the strength of a defense that ranks 30th in yards per game allowed. However, according to Saban, the Crimson Tide received worrisome news that linebacker Deontae Lawson is “very questionable” to play with an ankle sprain.
Lawson would be a significant loss for the defense, as his 26 tackles rank second on the team and he has added two sacks and two quarterback hurries.
Alabama held a potent Ole Miss offense to 148 total yards and 4.0 yards per play in the second half last week, but this game is not in Tuscaloosa. Thus, this is a contrarian three-star play, as we expect Alabama’s offensive issues to resurface on the road and help the Bulldogs possess the ball longer. After all, the Crimson Tide entered last week with the SEC’s worst completion percentage (55%), worst off-target percentage (20%), second-fewest passing yards per game (196), and second-lowest yards per dropback (6.2).
The reason we are getting plus-money odds for this team total at bet365 is that this wager is part of the sportsbook’s “Team Points 3 Way” wager, where we would be a loser to the Bulldogs landing on exactly 14 points, or going Under. However, considering we like the Over to cash, it is a no-brainer to forego the 15.5-point team total at other sportsbooks like DraftKings at -115 to back the Over.
Texas A&M-Arkansas Under 54.5 (-110 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Texas A&M offense was held under 40 points in every game in 2022 and scored a touchdown on just 20% of offensive drives. The Aggies averaged 22.8 points per game (13th in the SEC), 360.7 yards per game (12th), a 52 total QBR (13th), and 1.7 points per drive (last).
Why are we bringing this up? Most of that lack of production came with Max Johnson as the starting quarterback, and he will be thrust into that role again for the foreseeable future as Conner Weigman was ruled out for the season with a foot injury.
In the meantime, we expect the Aggies to rely on a solid rush defense that entered last week against Auburn ranked in the top 20 in rushing PPA allowed and rushing success rate allowed, then followed that up with holding the Tigers to just 3.5 yards per carry in a convincing 27-10 victory.
BetRivers is the only shop where one can find a total higher than 54. Jump on this number while you can, as DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering an O/U of 54 at the moment (all others are down to 53.5).
SEC college football best bets made 9/28/2023 at 6:08 a.m. ET.
Kentucky bettors: Sports betting is here!
Kentucky sports betting launched on Sept. 28 - so sign up with the best Kentucky sportsbook promos now! And check out our list of the best Kentucky sports betting apps!
21+ and present in KY. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
College football betting odds pages
| CFP National Championship Odds | SEC Odds | Big 12 Odds |
| Heisman Trophy Odds | Big Ten Odds | Pac-12 Odds |
| College Football Playoff Odds | Mountain West Odds | ACC Odds |
Check out our best college football betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Related Articles
