College Football Week 7 Picks Against the Spread for Marquee Games
Arguably the best slate of the year, our college football Week 7 picks against the spread focus on a trio of underrated matchups.
- If Pittsburgh beats California, the Panthers will be 6-0 and a real threat to move up the College Football Playoff odds in the ACC
- Quietly climbing the college football championship odds, a win against Arizona could make BYU a real threat to win the Big 12
- The consensus Heisman Trophy odds favorite, Ashton Jeanty leads Boise State against Hawaii in the final game of a loaded Saturday
In what could end up being the most important week of the entire season, our Week 7 college football predictions highlight the can't-miss matchups.
We also dive into our favorite moneyline underdogs this week as part of our college football Week 7 upset picks.
College football ATS picks Week 7: Marquee games
College football picks via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison | James Madison (-9.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Northwestern vs. Maryland | Maryland (-10) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Utah vs. Arizona State | Utah (-6) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| South Carolina vs. Alabama | Alabama (-21) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Clemson vs. Wake Forest | Clemson (-20) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Washington vs. Iowa | Iowa (-2.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Texas vs. Oklahoma | Oklahoma (+14) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Penn State vs. USC | Penn State (-5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Stanford vs. Notre Dame | Notre Dame (-24) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| California vs. Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Memphis vs. South Florida | South Florida (+7.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Arizona vs. BYU | BYU (-5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Mississippi State vs. Georgia | Georgia (-34) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Florida vs. Tennessee | Florida (+15) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ohio State vs. Oregon | Ohio State (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ole Miss vs. LSU | Ole Miss (-3.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky | Kentucky (-13.5) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Iowa State vs. West Virginia | Iowa State (-3) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Kansas State vs. Colorado | Kansas State (-4) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Boise State vs. Hawaii | Boise State (-20.5) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
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My favorite ATS picks this week
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Pittsburgh (-3.5) vs. California
Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%
After fumbling a near upset of Miami last week, California has to travel over 2,500 miles to Pittsburgh to take on a Panthers team that's now ranked in the AP Top 25.
Known for its defense under Pat Narduzzi, it's Pitt's offense that's going to be the difference in this one. Led by Eli Holstein, Desmond Reid, and Konata Mumfield, Pitt's putting up the sixth-most points per game in the country (45.6) and ranks 33rd in SP+ on offense.
The biggest difference should be between these rushing attacks. Pitt's 7th in EPA per rush on offense and Cal's just 89th.
Pitt's covered the spread in every game this season, and if it can do it again, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.
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BYU (-4.5) vs. Arizona
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
There's an argument that BYU is the most out-of-nowhere team in the country this season, which is why the Cougars are 5-0 ATS. Arizona on the other hand is 1-4 ATS.
Outside of an upset of an undermanned Utah team, the Wildcats have been disappointing, particularly on offense.
Arizona QB Noah Fifita has thrown just seven TDs vs. six interceptions, and BYU's defense is built to stop the pass - ranking fourth in EPA per dropback and allowing only 171 passing yards per game.
Defensively, Arizona is just 52nd in SP+ and should struggle to slow Jake Retzlaff and Co. If Retzlaff can lead another cover, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
Boise State (-20.5) at Hawaii
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Two decades ago, loyal college football fans were rewarded for staying up to watch Colt Brennan lead the Hawaii offense. This Saturday it'll be worth staying up to watch Ashton Jeanty shred the Rainbow Warriors' defense.
Hawaii is 82nd in EPA per rush this season, and Jeanty leads the country in pretty much every rushing category with 1,031 yards on just 95 carries. The Rainbow Warriors are in trouble with 46 missed tackles through five games, per PFF.
Timmy Chang's team also won't be able to keep up with Jeanty, it's only 109th in SP+ on offense while the Broncos are top 40 in EPA per rush and dropback on defense.
If Boise State covers for the third straight game, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
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