College Bowl Game Expert Picks for Saturday: Texas Tech is Undervalued

Our Sportsbook Review analysts put together a list of their college football expert picks for Saturday’s college bowl game slate. The picks are based on the top NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps, and this page will serve as your one-stop shop featuring our best picks for Saturday.

The 2023 college football bowl season will begin with a handful of games on Saturday before eventually culminating with the four-team College Football Playoff on Jan. 1. But why should Alabama-Michigan and Texas-Washington get all the fun?

The beauty of college football is that we will care about all postseason matchups, particularly if we have action on the games. Our college football experts are here to help with that while giving out their favorite picks ahead of this weekend. And don’t miss out on our College Football Best Bets and College Football Player Props.

As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here are our best college football expert picks for Saturday’s bowl game slate (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College bowl game schedule for Saturday

(Odds via Caesars)

• Georgia Southern (-3) vs. Ohio | Georgia Southern vs. Ohio prediction
• Jacksonville State (-2.5) vs. Louisiana
• Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State (-6.5)
• New Mexico State (-3.5) vs. Fresno State
• UCLA (-4.5) vs. Boise State | UCLA vs. Boise State prediction
• California vs. Texas Tech (-3.5) | California vs. Texas Tech prediction

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College bowl game expert picks for Saturday

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College bowl game top picks for Saturday

Jonathan Brady Over 31.5 receiving yards (-123 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jerry Kill’s New Mexico State Aggies received their wish. They will be playing in front of a friendly crowd during their matchup against Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque. NMSU is favored by more than a field goal, and with motivation being a big part of the handicapping process during bowl season, that might not even be enough points.

But the best angle for this game is to take the discounted line on New Mexico State’s top receiver. The trading team at Caesars is simply disrespecting the 5-foot-11 and 190-pound sophomore receiver Jonathan Brady with this line.

Truth be told, Caesars bumped this line down a handful of yards and is now giving an off-market price when the rest of our best sports betting apps are much higher on Brady. FanDuel has set his receiving line set at 41.5 yards.

Brady went off for 109 yards and two touchdowns during a 27-17 win over New Mexico on Sept. 16 the last time he was in this stadium. He's cleared this mark in seven games, leading the team in targets (58), receptions (37), and yards (613) during 2023. Trent Hudson, New Mexico State's No. 2 receiver, has entered the transfer portal, leaving no question about who the top option is on Saturday.

With a projection north of 40 receiving yards, we see immense value on this current Over.

–– Shane Jackson (SBR | Twitter/X)

Behren Morton Over 227.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas Tech’s Behren Morton faced two ranked and two unranked opponents over his team's last four regular-season games. Against the ranked opponents (Texas and Kansas), Morton completed 62.3% of his pass attempts while averaging 132 yards per game, with a 0-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Against the unranked opponents (UCF and TCU), Morton completed 70% of his throws while averaging 269 yards per contest and posting a 4-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Thus, we expect a high ceiling for Morton when facing a California defense that was torched for 50-plus points in four of nine conference games and allowed 34-plus points in six outings.

Morton’s projected passing total is somewhat lowered because wide receivers Myles Price and Jerand Bradley recently entered the transfer portal. They were two of the team’s top receivers and combined for 1,051 snaps.

However, while we're not as bullish on Morton’s Over on passing touchdowns with Price and Bradley combining for nine scores, we expect his yardage total to remain high. The Golden Bears' defense ranks 122nd in passing success rate and 11th out of 12 Pac-12 teams in passing yards allowed per game (283.3). 

We're making this wager at FanDuel, as all of the other best sportsbooks have posted a total slightly higher at 228.5 passing yards, with each charging at least -115 in juice to back the Over.

–– Mike Spector (SBR | Twitter/X)

Rashad Amos Under 87.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Appalachian State run defense is a decided weak spot for the unit, ranking 111th in the nation while allowing 181.3 rushing yards per game. For that reason, we’re seeing the rushing prop for lead Miami (OH) running back Rashad Amos juiced up considerably.

But the Redhawks aren’t known for a prolific rushing offense, ranking 95th in the FBS in rushing yards per game. While Amos has been producing a solid sophomore campaign, racking up 895 rushing yards, he hasn’t been clearing this type of rushing line with much frequency.

Amos has only gone above FanDuel's 87.5-yard mark three times in 2023. With App State a near-touchdown favorite in this contest and rushing acumen not being the strength of the Miami (OH) offensive attack, I don’t see Amos as likely to reach this lofty number on the ground.

The rest of our best sportsbooks list this rushing total between 83.5 and 84.5 yards, so make sure to grab this prop with solid -114 odds on Under 87.5 yards through FanDuel.

–– Brenden Schaeffer (SBR | Twitter/X)

Behren Morton 250-plus passing yards (+155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Morton has endured his share of ups and downs in 2023. He completed just 19 of his 36 pass attempts for 88 yards, zero touchdowns, and three interceptions during his last outing. Of course, that performance can be forgiven considering he was up against the Texas Longhorns.

He’s only thrown for more than 250 yards twice this campaign, but he gets a juicy matchup in the Independence Bowl. The Golden Bears are the fifth-worst team against the pass in 2023, allowing 283.7 passing yards per game. They've had to face some of the country's best quarterbacks because of their Pac-12 schedule, and just about every team has been enjoying success while passing.

Morton’s odds for this prop vary slightly at our best live betting sites. FanDuel currently offers the worst price of +146, while bet365 posts +155. You could consider taking Morton’s regular Over, but this alternative line offers the most value.

–– Phil Wood (SBR | Twitter/X)

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