College Football Best Bets Week 8: Michigan State to Struggle

Can running back Phil Mafah score more points for Clemson than Michigan State scores against Iowa?

Mike Spector

Last updated: October 18, 2024 5:54 PM EDT • 7 min read

Aaron Anderson scores a touchdown for the LSU Tigers as we look at our Week 8 college football best bets. — Aaron Anderson scores a touchdown for the LSU Tigers. Photo by: Scott Clause/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images.

The Week 8 college football slate is loaded with several games that will have huge implications for the College Football Playoff and conference title races.

This is the second straight week where two AP top-5 teams meet as Texas hosts Georgia
Army and Navy play games each ranked in the AP poll for the first time since 1960
Four teams (Miami, UConn, Ball State, Navy) are undefeated to the Over, and Houston is the only team that has seen the Under cashed in all its games

As we make our Week 8 college football predictions, we have picks from three of the four Power Four conferences. We're fading an SEC team that just lost its starting quarterback and a Big Ten team facing a stout defense.

Our predictions from Week 7 went 3-1. Can we keep it rolling in our Week 8 college football predictions and best bets?

Best college football bets for Week 8

College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Phil Mafah to score 2+ touchdowns (+125 via DraftKings) vs. Virginia ⭐⭐⭐
Aaron Anderson Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115 via bet365) vs. Arkansas ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Michigan State team total Under 16.5 (+104 via FanDuel) vs. Iowa ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Kentucky -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Florida ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 8 college football odds & schedule

(Odds via BetMGM)

Miami (-4.5) vs. Louisville (+4.5), Saturday at noon ET
Nebraska (+6.5) vs. Indiana (-6.5), Saturday at noon ET
Alabama (-3) vs. Tennessee (+3), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Michigan (-3.5) vs. Illinois (+3.5), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
LSU (-2.5) vs. Arkansas (+2.5), Saturday at 7 p.m. ET
Georgia (+4.5) vs. Texas (-4.5), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET

College football props Week 8

College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Phil Mafah to score 2+ touchdowns (+125) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +125 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 44.44%

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Clemson is a three-touchdown favorite over Virginia and has a team total O/U of 39.5 points.

Oddsmakers think that means a big day is in store for quarterback Cade Klubnik, as he is one of the few signal-callers whose O/U on passing touchdowns is 2.5 (the Over has a 51.46% implied probability at FanDuel). However, given how much more successful Virginia was defending the pass instead of the run last week, the better value lies with backing Mafah to score multiple touchdowns.

The Cavaliers held Louisville QB Tyler Shough to his lowest PFF passing grade and yards per attempt average last week. Meanwhile, they allowed Isaac Brown to run for a season-high 146 yards and two touchdowns and have now had opposing running backs score multiple touchdowns against them in two of the three conference games this year.

This is a three-star play, as Clemson ranks in the top 12 nationally in EPA/Rush, and should bully Virginia’s front seven all game.

Mafah has as high as -450 odds to score a TD at DraftKings, carrying an 81.82% implied probability. But the best odds for him to score multiple touchdowns is FanDuel’s +115 odds. A $10 winning wager would net $12.50 in profits.

Aaron Anderson Over 57.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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LSU’s tandem of Anderson and Kyren Lacy is one of the best in the country. The two have the same amount of receptions (30) and nearly identical yardage totals (452 to 463) and average yardages per catch (15.1 to 15.4).

The biggest difference between the two players is Lacy has double the amount of touchdown receptions (six) than Anderson (three). So, from an O/U receiving yards perspective, why would Lacy’s O/U of 74.5 be 17 yards higher than Anderson’s?

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier’s 51 pass attempts last week were tied for the third-most in a game in school history. The Tigers have been one of the most pass-happy teams in the SEC all season, and similar volume should have Anderson soaring over this projected total. He's reached that target in all six games this season (his season-low is 63 yards).

The best number for Over backers is at bet365.

Rob Paul is also backing the Tigers' passing attack as part of our college football Week 8 expert picks.

College football game predictions Week 8

Michigan State team total Under 16.5 (+104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 49.02%

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Michigan State averaged 8.5 points in back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Oregon and has only cracked the 20-point plateau against Maryland and Prairie View. The Spartans now face an Iowa Hawkeyes defense that has picked off opposing quarterbacks seven times and has a top-three PFF coverage grade.

Iowa is coming off a game where it recorded four sacks, which should cause problems for a Michigan State offensive line that ranks in the bottom five of PFF’s pass-blocking grades. Iowa should also be able to control time of possession with its bruising running game, as Michigan State ranks outside the top 55 in rushing first downs allowed.

FanDuel is the only top sports betting site offering plus-money odds to back the team total Under of 16.5, as DraftKings, by comparison, has -120 odds (carrying a 54.55% implied probability) for the same wager.

Brenden Schaeffer is fading the Spartans' biggest in-state rival in his Michigan vs. Illinois prediction.

Kentucky -1.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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In any other year, a loss to Vanderbilt like Kentucky had last week would be something to be ridiculed. However, the Commodores have serious momentum after not trailing in wins over Alabama and Kentucky, the first time they didn’t trail in consecutive SEC games since at least 1996.

Kentucky lost the turnover battle last week and committed an uncharacteristic 12 penalties. But as we have grown accustomed to, its defense kept it in the game, holding Vanderbilt to 288 total yards and fewer than four yards per carry.

Given the Wildcats' slow pace, possessions will always be limited. That will put added pressure on a Florida Gators offense that has converted just eight of 33 third-downs in games against the three best defenses they faced (Miami, Texas A&M, and Tennessee).

Lastly, this is a four-star play as the Gators lost starting quarterback Graham Mertz for the season with a torn ACL.

That injury was the final news that likely made this line jump the fence, as the Wildcats opened as 2.5-point underdogs. However, I do not believe oddsmakers compensated enough for a significant injury to an experienced quarterback, which still leaves plenty of value backing Kentucky at anything less than a field goal.

College football picks roundup: Week 8

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”