College Football National Championship Odds 2025-26: CFP Predictions & Picks

The college football season is finally here, with the Big Ten and SEC once again dominating the college football national championship odds. The two conferences have accounted for the last six national champions, but will this year be any different?

Given the state of college football, and with nine of the top 12 teams by the College Football Playoff odds hailing from the "Power Two," my college football picks for this upcoming season don't stray from recent history.

While I do have a few non-traditional teams reaching the 12-team College Football Playoff - similarly to Arizona State, Indiana, and SMU last year - the vast majority of my CFP picks, and my national champion prediction, are blue bloods.

📊 College football national championship odds 2025-26

College football national championship odds update in real time based on the college football odds from our college football betting sites.

🔮 2025 College Football Playoff predictions

🦁 Big Ten champion: Penn State

✅ Penn State Big Ten Championship odds: +240 via bet365

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Though the Big Ten has three teams ranked within the top 10 of SP+ heading into the season, Penn State is the only one with a returning starter at QB. Ohio State (Julian Sayin), Oregon (Dante Moore), and Michigan (Bryce Underwood/Mikey Keene) all have new starting QBs, while the Nittany Lions return Drew Allar.

Allar isn't the only big name back in Happy Valley, either; Penn State ranks top 25 in returning production with potential All-Americans like Nicholas Singleton, Olaivavega Ioane, Drew Shelton, Zane Durant, Zakee Wheatley, and A.J. Harris back. Plus, James Franklin fixed his wide receiver problem via the transfer portal by bringing in Trebor Pena (Syracuse), Devonte Ross (Troy), and Kyron Hudson (USC).

🐘 SEC champion: Alabama

✅ Alabama SEC Championship odds: +450 via bet365

The debut of Kalen DeBoer as Nick Saban's replacement left a lot to be desired, but Alabama remains one of the most talented teams in the country and returns one of the nation's best offensive lines. Kadyn Proctor, Parker Brailsford, and Jaeden Roberts (if he's healthy) are All-American candidates up front. Behind them is new starting QB Ty Simpson, who steps into a scheme that helped Michael Penix Jr. become a top-10 pick - DeBoer even brought back Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator. Simpson also gets to throw to one of the best wide receiver trios in the country (Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton).

The defense isn't short on talent, either, with LT Overton, Tim Keenan III, Deontae Lawson, Domani Jackson, Bray Hubbard, and Keon Sabb all back. The Crimson Tide are the only team in the country that ranks top six in both offensive and defensive SP+ heading into the season.

🐅 ACC champion: Clemson

✅ Clemson ACC Championship odds: +110 via bet365

The ACC is the weakest of the Power Four conferences this season, and anything less than Clemson winning double-digit games and taking the conference title should be deemed a massive disappointment. The Tigers rank No. 1 in the country in returning production and bring back a Heisman Trophy odds candidate at QB in Cade Klubnik. He gets to throw to a wide receiver room full of future pros, led by Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr., and T.J. Moore. Plus, Dabo Swinney's squad returns three All-ACC-caliber offensive linemen (Tristan Leigh, Walker Parks, Blake Miller) and adds a budding star in freshman running back Gideon Davidson.

Defensively, this looks like Swinney's previous championship-winning teams. The defensive line is terrifying, with two potential top-10 picks in T.J. Parker and Peter Woods, plus Swinney even bolstered the group via the portal with Will Heldt (Purdue). The linebacker room has two sledgehammers in Sammy Brown and Wade Woodaz, and cornerback Avieon Terrell should be a first-round pick like his brother. Clemson's biggest challengers will be SMU and Louisville, who both rank outside the top 15 in SP+.

🐱 Big 12 champion: Kansas State

✅ Kansas State Big 12 Championship odds: +600 via BetMGM

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The Big 12 has more parity than any other Power Four conference, primarily because there are so many talented quarterbacks in it. Nine of the 16 programs return their starting QBs from last season, while others added young talent at the position via the portal - Utah (Devon Dampier), BYU (Bear Bachmeier), Houston (Conner Weigman), etc. But no team is as well-rounded as Kansas State, which brings back one of the most dynamic QBs in the country in Avery Johnson.

Though Johnson isn't as polished as Sam Leavitt at Arizona State, his mobility can be a game-changer. The Wildcats also bring back so much; they're No. 16 in returning production, with players like Dylan Edwards, Jayce Brown, VJ Payne, and Austin Romaine. They're the reason K-State is the only team in the conference that ranks top 20 in SP+ (18th). The key to taking the title from Arizona State, and not being stopped by Utah's revamped offense and Texas Tech's $25-million roster, will be the offensive line.

🐴 Highest-ranked G5 champion: Boise State

Losing a talent like Ashton Jeanty would derail most Group of Five teams, but Boise State isn't most G5 programs. The Broncos lost the Heisman runner-up and still sit No. 13 in returning production and are far and away the highest rated G5 team by SP+ (No. 33). Outside of Tulane, no G5 team comes close to Boise State's talent, and the Green Wave play in a far more competitive conference (American Athletic Conference) - as Memphis, UTSA, Army, Navy, and South Florida are all poised for strong years. And James Madison also plays in a strong-looking Sun Belt conference.

The Broncos, meanwhile, play a schedule that's 104th in strength of schedule, return starting QB Maddux Madsen, have the top NFL draft prospect in the G5 (Kage Casey), and have another potentially dynamic running back in Sire Gaines. Boise State could cruise to an 11-1 record, with its lone loss to Notre Dame, before winning the Mountain West title.

🎟️ At-large bids

• Oregon: The Ducks are No. 7 in SP+ with former blue-chip QB Dante Moore set to start, plus Dan Lanning added a loaded portal class - Makhi Hughes, Dillon Theieneman, Isaiah World, etc. - and brings back Matayo Uiagalelei, Bryce Boettcher, and Kenyon Sadiq.
• Ohio State: While the Buckeyes lost a ton from their championship team to the NFL, they're still No. 1 in SP+ entering the season with arguably the two best players on each side of the ball in the country in Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs, and Sayin shouldn't have any issue being productive as QB1.
• Texas: A lot is being put on Arch Manning, and he's thrown just 95 passes in his career, so it's fair to assume the Longhorns might take a bit to get going. However, it's also fair to assume that once they do, they'll be an obvious title contender with a loaded running back room and a terrifying defense.
• Notre Dame: There's plenty of reason to expect the Fighting Irish to go on another CFP run; they have the best running back in the country (Jeremiyah Love), their best wide receiver room in years, a wildly talented O-line, and a top-notch secondary, but it'll all depend on new QB CJ Carr.
• Georgia: The Bulldogs sit No. 3 in SP+ entering the season and will need Gunner Stockton to prove he's got the goods to carry Kirby Smart's team to another title. Luckily for him, Georgia added Noah Thomas and Zachariah Branch to the offense and looks to have another elite defense led by CJ Allen.
• Nebraska: By his third season with a team, Matt Rhule wins double-digit games, and he could actually do it with the Cornhuskers if Dylan Raiola takes the leap many expect from him as a sophomore. It helps that Nebraska reinforced its wide receiver room, O-line, and defense in the portal.
• Texas Tech: The most expensive roster in the sport won the title last year, and the Red Raiders are reportedly spending $5 million more on this team than Ohio State did, which should be enough to help Joey McGuire make a CFP push with additions like David Bailey, Lee Hunter, and Howard Sampson.

🏆 My 2025-26 national championship pick

👑 Penn State

📊 Best odds: +700 via DraftKings ($10 to win $70)
🔢 Implied probability: 12.5%

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Two years ago, it was Michigan. Last year, it was Ohio State. Is Penn State finally ready to break through and continue the run of Big Ten national champions? On paper, there's no better choice than the Nittany Lions to win the title. Of the teams ranked top nine in SP+, Penn State (No. 4) is the only one with a proven QB in Allar. It's also one of only three teams to rank top eight in both offense and defense.

Obviously, Franklin's lack of success against top-tier teams is a reason to second-guess this Penn State squad, but this can be the year he flips that narrative, similar to Ryan Day with the Buckeyes last year. The Nittany Lions have everything you could want on the offensive side of the ball - a veteran QB, the best one-two punch at running back in the nation, a trio of top-rated transfer portal receivers, multiple All-American candidates on the O-line, and one of the sport's best play-callers in Andy Kotelnicki.

While the defense lost Abdul Carter, it also gained Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator, who helped transform Ohio State's defense last year. And Knowles doesn't lack for toys, with a D-line led by Durant and Dani Dennis-Sutton, North Carolina transfer Amare Campbell at linebacker, and a secondary with top NFL prospects in Wheatley and Harris. 

Franklin has arguably the best coordinator combo in the sport on top of a roster littered with future NFL players - sounds a lot like Ohio State last season. 

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