Mississippi State vs. Texas Early Picks, Predictions & Odds Week 5
What the Longhorns are about to do to the Bulldogs violates a number of religious beliefs and is considered unlawful in as many as 29 U.S. states and Puerto Rico.
Our Mississippi State vs. Texas early picks and odds don’t see any way for the Bulldogs to survive, as their first season under head coach Jeff Lebby isn’t going very well.
Their outlook is so bleak heading into the matchup with the Longhorns that we’re not seeing any of our best sports betting apps willing to take a moneyline bet.
The Longhorns enter Week 5 as the third-highest team in the college football championship odds, and Arch Manning is an intriguing dark horse in the Heisman odds.
My early Mississippi State vs. Texas prediction
College football picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Prediction: Texas -38.5
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
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We faded Mississippi State as the home team last week against a reeling Florida squad. That play panned out, as the Gators hung 45 points and left Starkville with a comfortable 17-point win.
It doesn’t matter whether Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning, or anybody else on the QB depth chart commands the offense. It’s hard to imagine Texas failing to get to 50 points at home against Mississippi State after Florida and Toledo both surpassed 40 in Starkville.
The Bulldogs rank 128th out of 134 FBS teams in adjusted defensive efficiency. Offensively, Texas ranks fifth nationally in adjusted efficiency. The Longhorn's defense is even better, with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating that ranks second in the country.
Mississippi State, which sits 81st in adjusted offensive efficiency, may not score an offensive touchdown. We’d need to see the line get past Texas -41.5 before I could consider not liking the Longhorns in this spot as part of our college football predictions for Week 5.
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Mississippi State vs. Texas live odds
See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every Week 5 game.
Moneyline
- Texas best odds: N/A | Implied probability: 100.00%
- Mississippi State best odds: N/A | Implied probability: 00.00%
I wish I were kidding, but there's still no moneyline on this game from any of our best sportsbooks.
It’s not advanced analytics, but when the sportsbooks don’t even offer a moneyline, I’m going to assume that means they aren’t giving Mississippi State much of a chance to pull off the upset.
Spread
The majority of our best sports betting sites have parked this line at Texas -38.5, which is where we saw it open. I’d be surprised if the line doesn’t eventually move further toward the Longhorns.
But for now, we’re seeing FanDuel, Caesars, and bet365 as the spots to bet Texas, with -110 odds on the 38.5-point spread.
BetMGM is a better outlet for Hail State backers, offering -105 odds on +38.5.
Over/Under
With the potential for second-teamers to get some run on the Texas side as this game winds down, it could come down to garbage time to determine whether this one clears the total of 62.5.
Only DraftKings and FanDuel have strayed from the standard -110 alignment on both sides of the line, posting solid odds of -105 and -108 on the Over, respectively, for a total of 62.5.
Under bettors should head to Caesars or BetMGM to grab standard -110 odds
How to watch Mississippi State vs. Texas
- When: Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024
- Kickoff: 4:15 p.m. ET
- Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
- How to watch: SEC Network
- Weather: 91 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph north
- Favorite: Texas (-38.5)
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