Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Prediction & Picks Today: Egg Bowl
The rivalry is always intense when the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels clash, even without College Football Playoff odds implications this time around for the Egg Bowl.
In our Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss prediction we examine which side is better positioned to cover a massive spread, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Black Friday from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss. (ESPN).
Each school has suffered a recent setback in SEC play. As part of our Week 14 college football predictions, we'll look to see which team can rebound.
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss prediction & best bet today: Egg Bowl
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Mississippi State +26.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Ole Miss ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Under 62 points (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss ATS prediction: Week 14
Mississippi State to cover the spread: +26.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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History favors Mississippi State
Mississippi State and Ole Miss have been the antithesis of each other this year, as evidenced by their respective results against Toledo and Georgia. However, the Rebels’ College Football Playoff hopes evaporated last week when they were stunned by Florida in The Swamp. All signs point to this being a huge letdown spot for Ole Miss.
For all intents and purposes, the Rebels have little left to play for aside from rivalry bragging rights. The betting community tends to fade teams in the week following heartbreaking losses, even if the talent gap between the sides is undeniable. The programs have been traveling in opposite directions for years, but we’re siding with history here.
The Rebels haven’t registered an Egg Bowl win of 27 points or more in nearly two decades. The average margin of victory in this rivalry since 2000 is 14.75 points per game, with only five combined wins of 27+ points.
Despite Mississippi State’s poor record, the Bulldogs have been quite good against the spread (6-5), especially on the road (3-1). This makes me feel comfortable siding with the underdogs at BetMGM’s -110 odds.
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss best bet
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Under 62 points ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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The 2024 Egg Bowl will feature the SEC’s best and worst Over teams.
Mississippi State games have hit the Over at a 72.7% clip (8-3) this season, whereas Ole Miss contests have paid the Over just 18.2% (2-9) of the time. Vaught-Hemingway Stadium has seen the Over cash just once this season in six games. Further, despite their excellent Over/Under record, the Bulldogs have leaned Under in 75% of their road games in 2024.
Factor in the fact that rivalry games are always scrappy—particularly on short weeks—and the Under becomes an even more favorable play. The Egg Bowl has seen the two sides combine to score 62 points just twice in the last decade and zero times in seven meetings.
Caesars lists the total at 62, a half-point higher than the rest of the market. Bettors don’t have to pay extra juice to play the bloated total, so the -110 price is appealing.
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss live odds
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss opening odds:
- Mississippi State +26.5 (-110)
- Ole Miss -26.5 (-110)
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss odds movement
There's been minimal line movement tied to the spread, with Mississippi State remaining the overwhelming favorite. The spread has fallen a few notches from -26.5 to -24.5.
The total has risen similarly, going up a little from 61.5 to 62.
Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss game info
- When: Friday, Nov. 29
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, Miss.)
- How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+
- Weather: 48 degrees, 6% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph NNW
- Favorite: Ole Miss -26.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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