Michigan State vs. Ohio State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 11: Will Harrison Shred Spartans?
We’re anticipating the Ohio State Buckeyes will enjoy a big night through the air against the Michigan State Spartans, as we share our best Michigan State vs. Ohio State prediction. All our college football picks are based on the NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.
The Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) are looking to remain the top-ranked team in the College Football Playoff Rankings by topping the visiting, and struggling, Michigan State Spartans (3-6) on Saturday night.
Following a series of lower-scoring games, the Buckeyes are gearing up to revitalize their offense significantly against the Spartans' defense. Ohio State, known for its high-scoring capabilities, appears determined to break free from recent offensive struggles and put up a formidable performance against Michigan State. The upcoming matchup signals the Buckeyes' intent to unleash a potent offensive display, posing a considerable challenge for the Spartans' defensive unit.
Check out our college football Week 11 predictions and college football best bets to accompany our best Michigan State vs. Ohio State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Michigan State vs. Ohio State prediction
Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 97.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
When you see that Michigan State ranks somewhere near the middle of the pack in pass defense across FBS, allowing an average of 235.4 passing yards per game, you might be inclined to believe that Ohio State won’t throw it all over the Spartans on Saturday. But these defensive averages across the Big Ten are completely skewed because the conference is filled primarily with teams incapable of passing the football effectively.
When Sparty faced Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy a few weeks ago, he cleared this mark with 287 passing yards in a 49-0 win. In that spirit, I’d take a look at Kyle McCord’s passing line for this weekend and see FanDuel’s number at 282.5 (-114 on Over). It’s attainable against a defense that mostly faces opponents allergic to the forward pass.
But digging deeper, if I’m buying the Ohio State passing attack in Week 11, the more effective way to approach it is with Marvin Harrison Jr.’s receiving line. At 97.5 yards, that line represents only 34.5% of McCord’s passing line, but Harrison is responsible for 35.8% of Ohio State’s receiving yards on the year.
This depleted line feels like an overreaction to Harrison’s 25-yard outing against Rutgers. If McCord is to clear his passing line, it almost has to come from the contributions of Harrison. McCord has cleared this line just three times all year, while Harrison has six games with triple-digit receiving yards.
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Michigan State vs. Ohio State best odds
FanDuel (-114)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Over 97.5 receiving yards | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| N/A | -114 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Patience may be a virtue if you want to shop around our best sports betting apps for their best odds on this prop. Only FanDuel has released player prop lines on this game as of Thursday afternoon.
That said, I like the value we’re getting at FanDuel on this prop enough to lock it in before seeing where the rest of the sportsbooks set the line. I’d take Harrison’s receiving line up to 109.5 yards this week.
Michigan State vs. Ohio State odds
Michigan State vs. Ohio State odds analysis
Ohio State opened as a 24.5-point favorite and has rocketed up to between -31 and -31.5 across our best sports betting apps. At this time, 57% of wagers have come in on the Buckeyes.
The total opened at 68 in August, but has plummeted in the weeks leading up to the game. We’re seeing the number now between 47 and 47.5. With that drastic adjustment, 76% of wagers have come in on the Over.
Michigan State vs. Ohio State game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 11 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: 44 degrees, 6 mph winds, 0% precipitation
Michigan State-Ohio State prediction made 11/09/2023 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
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