LSU vs. Missouri Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 6: Daniels, Cook Trade Touchdowns

Check out our best prediction for the Week 6 college football matchup between LSU and Missouri based on the best NCAAF odds.

Mike Spector

Last updated: October 7, 2023 10:51 AM EDT • 5 min read

The LSU Tigers aim to bounce back from their Week 5 loss as they face the undefeated Missouri Tigers, and we present our expert LSU vs. Missouri prediction for this SEC showdown, relying on the college football odds provided by our best sports betting apps.

With the LSU Tigers losing 55-49 to the Ole Miss Rebels last week, any hopes of taking a run at the CFP National Championship were all but squandered for LSU head coach Brian Kelly and quarterback Jayden Daniels.

The Missouri Tigers, meanwhile, are sporting a 5-0 record for the first time since 2013, and they’ll look to improve their resume with a home-field win in Columbia on Saturday.

Here is our best LSU vs. Missouri prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

LSU vs. Missouri prediction: Week 6

Over 63 (-113 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

We will likely be on the public’s side of this wager by the time this game kicks off, especially since LSU is coming off a game with over 100 points scored. While we usually prefer to be on the contrarian side of our wager, this total seems much too low, given the advantages each offense should have over the opposing defenses.

Before holding perennial SEC bottom-dweller Vanderbilt to 2-of-10 on third down, Missouri had allowed its last three opponents to convert 25 of their 53 third-down attempts (47.2%). That is a dangerous way to play against a Jayden Daniels-led offense, as Daniels’ 1,710 passing yards rank third among FBS quarterbacks. In addition, Daniels ranks second in total yards, is tied for second with 16 passing touchdowns, and the only player who has more points responsible for than his 114 is reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams.

Thus, we expect Daniels to have another successful day through the air, as he brings his 342 passing yards per game into a matchup with a Tigers secondary that ranks 97th in the country in Passing Downs Explosiveness. As a result, we do not expect LSU head coach Brian Kelly to challenge a Missouri defensive front that ranks in the Top 4 in the country in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate.

On the other side, Missouri quarterback Brady Cook does a great job taking care of the football, as he has the SEC record for most pass attempts without an interception. But by no means is he a game manager, as he has 300-plus passing yards in three consecutive games.

Cook has an outstanding connection with wide receiver Luther Burden III, who has four straight games of 100 or more receiving yards.

Each of these offenses ranks in the Top 3 of the SEC in success rate, so we expect both teams that are profitable to the Over (the Over is 9-1 in their last 10 games combined) to produce another shootout.

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LSU vs. Missouri best odds

BetRivers (-113)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	bet365	BetRivers
63.5	63.5	63.5	63.5	63.5	63
Over (-110)	Over (-110)	Over (-110)	Over (-110)	Over (-110)	Over (-113)

It's not often that all five major sportsbooks are aligned on the same total, and no shop is juiced in either direction. Thus, the extra half-point at a slightly higher price of -113 is worth heading to BetRivers for, but we would not play this total at anything higher than 63.5.

LSU vs. Missouri odds

LSU vs. Missouri odds analysis

FanDuel was the lowest of all sportsbooks in terms of its opening number, as it began with an O/U of 61.5 points, while all its competitors started higher at 62.5. Nevertheless, all sportsbooks have risen to 63.5, as 58% of early wagers have backed the Over.

Much like the total, all sportsbooks are in unison with a point spread of LSU -6.5. The line has remained frozen all week at every shop except BetRivers, which opened at -7 on Sunday night and was quickly bet down to -6.5 within two hours to align with its competitors. The two-way action justifies the early week line freeze, as 55% of the wagers are on the underdogs.

LSU vs. Missouri game info

When: Saturday, Oct. 7 at 12:00 p.m. ET

Where: Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, MO

How to watch: ESPN

Weather: 62 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph NW

LSU-Missouri prediction made 10/3/23 at 4:12 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”