LSU vs. Alabama Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 10: Can Tigers' Secondary Be Exploited?
The LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide face off on Saturday, and we believe the former's recent defensive improvements are fool's gold as we make our LSU vs. Alabama prediction based on the best college football odds.
LSU, boasting a 6-2 record, has been showing signs of defensive improvement in recent weeks. However. their recent opponents, Auburn and Army, featured less potent passing offenses compared to the teams that challenged LSU earlier in the season, potentially influencing the perception of their defensive progress.
Meanwhile, Alabama (7-1) is steadily gaining confidence in their offensive capabilities. The question remains: can the Crimson Tide launch an offensive assault on LSU similar to what we've seen from other formidable SEC teams?
As part of our college football prediction for Week 10 and college football best bets, here is our best LSU-Alabama prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
LSU vs. Alabama prediction: Week 10
Over 60.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The way the LSU defense was playing a few weeks ago, we would have been surprised to see this total anywhere below 67.5. But after allowing 94 combined points to Ole Miss and Missouri, the Bayou Bengals have begun to clamp down. LSU held Auburn to 18 points before shutting out Army.
While the unit is playing better, the porous pass defense wasn’t exactly tested against Payton Thorne and Army’s run-option offense. That’s why FPI still ranks LSU’s adjusted defensive efficiency at No. 90 in the nation, ahead of only Vanderbilt among SEC teams. It’s also why we like the Over in this matchup.
Although Bama’s elite defense held Joe Milton and KJ Jefferson to pedestrian efforts over its past two contests, Arkansas and Tennessee both hit a respectable 20 points in those games. I look for the Jayden Daniels-led attack to top that for sure.
LSU boasts the second-highest scoring average in the nation at 43.9 points per game, consistently maintaining a strong offensive performance in conference play with an average of 44.2 points per game against SEC opponents, never dipping below 34 points in these matchups.
Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, meanwhile, should have established some confidence with seven touchdown passes over his last three games. Against an LSU defense that allowed Brady Cook, Jaxson Dart, and KJ Jefferson to combine for 1,089 passing yards (363.0 per game), Milroe should be able to pace the Tide in a shootout environment.
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LSU vs. Alabama best odds
Over 60.5 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 60.5 | Over 60.5 | Over 60.5 | Over 60.5 | Over 60.5 |
| -112 | -114 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
Each of our best sports betting sites lists the total at 60.5. BetMGM, Caesars and bet365 all list -110 odds on both sides of the wager, presenting strong value for Over bettors compared to the odds at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Over bettors should avoid the heavier juice at DraftKings (-112) and FanDuel (-114), while bettors favoring the Under will find optimal value at those locations. We like the Over as a four-star recommendation up to 61. The Over remains in play as a three-star wager up to 63.5.
LSU vs. Alabama odds
LSU vs. Alabama odds analysis
The lookahead line opened with Alabama favored by seven points. To begin the week, the Crimson Tide was a 4.5-point favorite, with the spread now dropping to Alabama -3 across our best sportsbooks. 67% of wagers have come in on Alabama.
The total opened at 62.5 and has dropped down to 60.5 across our best sports betting apps. 50% of the wagers have come in on the Over.
LSU vs. Alabama game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023 at 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 64 Degrees, 4 mph winds, 0% Precipitation
LSU-Alabama prediction made Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. ET.
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