Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 8

The New Mexico State Aggies look to end their five-game losing streak when they host the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.

The Aggies lost three of their last four games by at least 20 points. With the Bulldogs coming off a 27-point win, the best Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State prediction may be backing the road team to cover as double-digit favorites.

But the Bulldogs are far from unbeatable.

Their Week 7 win was their first over an FBS team this season. Their losses have all been by 10 points or fewer, but they’re still losses. And despite putting up 551 yards of total offense last week, they’re only averaging 364.5 yards per game.

We've also covered another Tuesday game, offering our Troy vs. South Alabama prediction.  

Best Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: New Mexico State +10.5 (-105 via BetMGM) vs. Louisiana Tech ⭐⭐
• My best bet: Donerio Davenport to score a touchdown (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State against the spread prediction: Week 8

New Mexico State to cover the spread: +10.5 (-105) ⭐⭐

Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State opening odds:

• Louisiana Tech: -10.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
• New Mexico State: +10.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Underdogs win the battle of weakness vs. weakness

The Aggies have the worst run defense in college football. They’re allowing 288.6 rushing yards per game and an average of 315 over the last three. Typically, teams would exploit this weakness, but the Bulldogs aren’t going to be able to.

The Bulldogs are averaging just 108.3 rushing yards per game. Last week, they ran for 222 yards, but no player had more than 50 rushing yards in the blowout victory. It's a team that averages 256.3 passing yards per game, and they'll remain a passing team this week because that’s their identity.

Low-scoring affair favors the underdogs

The Aggies are averaging just 17.6 points per game. While that’s one of the worst marks in the nation, the Bulldogs are averaging just 24.5. The Bulldogs have scored more than 20 points in just one FBS game this season.

While the Aggies are allowing 42.6 points per game, they’ve held three offenses to 31 points or fewer. Considering how lackluster the Bulldogs’ offense has been, I’m not ready to say last week’s performance was the start of a trend.

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State best bet

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Donerio Davenport to score a touchdown (-130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Davenport is the only Bulldog running back to score a rushing touchdown this season. He has one of the team's six rushing touchdowns, and Davenport and this rushing attack will never have a better chance to pad the stats.

I’ve already discussed how bad the Aggies’ rush defense is. They’re also allowing 5.2 touchdowns per game, tied for the eighth worst. 

Of all Bulldog running backs, Davenport leads the team in touches with 31 carries and seven catches. He should end Tuesday with the most chances to score, and against this defense, he should be able to capitalize.

The only sportsbook offering this prop right now is FanDuel. The price isn’t great, but it's still worth taking in this matchup.

Best odds: -130 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.52%

Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State game info

• When: Tuesday, Oct. 15
• Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
• Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium (Las Cruces, N.M.)
• How to watch: ESPNU
• Weather: 72 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph E
• Favorite: Louisiana Tech -10.5 (-110 via bet365)

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