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Liberty vs. Oregon Prediction, Pick & Odds: Fiesta Bowl

Philip Wood

Last Updated: January 1, 2024 11:18 AM EST • 3 min 3 sec read.

The Oregon Ducks face off with the Liberty Flames on Monday, as we make our best Liberty vs. Oregon prediction for the Fiesta Bowl based on the best college football odds at the top college football betting sites.

The Liberty Flames sailed throughout the regular season, finishing with a flawless 13-0 record en route to winning the Conference USA title. They recorded double-digit victories in 11 of their 13 triumphs, cementing their spot in a prestigious New Year's Six bowl game.

Meanwhile, the Oregon Ducks concluded their season with an 11-2 record, suffering both defeats against the Washington Huskies. Despite these setbacks, they managed to secure 10 of their 11 wins with comfortable two-score differences, showcasing their prowess as the fourth-highest-scoring team nationally. Oregon's season, though marred by two losses, highlighted their ability to dominate on the scoreboard in most of their matchups.

As part of our New Year's Six predictions and our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Liberty vs. Oregon prediction and our college football picks for Monday's Fiesta Bowl (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Liberty vs. Oregon prediction: Fiesta Bowl

Oregon -16.5 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Motivation always plays a big role in bowl games, which could give the edge to the underappreciated Flames. But the fact that Bo Nix is starting at quarterback for the Ducks says all you need to know about how seriously the Ducks are taking this game.

Nix threw for 4,145 yards, 40 touchdowns, and just three interceptions this season and was a serious Heisman Trophy contender up until the Ducks' season-ending loss to Washington. Against the 90th-ranked pass defense, he is going to end his college career on a high note.

At the time of writing, there are no Nix props available. However, we expect his passing yards and passing touchdowns props to be set high, especially when you consider that Oregon Over 42.5 is currently going for -110. Therefore, we recommend playing the Ducks to cover the spread.

The Flames are a great story, and their offense is averaging 40.8 points per game. But they haven’t faced a defense as good as Oregon’s this season. Even with opt-outs, the Ducks are going to dominate Liberty QB Kaidon Salter and win this game by close to four touchdowns.

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Liberty vs. Oregon best odds

bet365 (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Oregon -16.5Oregon -16.5Oregon -16.5Oregon -16.5Oregon -16.5
-115-110-115-110-110

This number is going to continue to climb before kickoff. Just a touch under 70% of bettors back the Ducks to cover, and oddsmakers have not been slow to change the spread. Therefore, if you want to get in at the lowest number, you should do so now by wagering at either FanDuel, Caesars, or bet365.

However, you could wait to see how this spread moves. Getting -17 for -105 or -17.5 for +100 would certainly be worth it, and those spreads and prices look like they’re going to be appearing sooner than later.

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Liberty vs. Oregon odds

Liberty vs. Oregon odds analysis

The Ducks opened as 14-point favorites, and it didn’t take long at all for the spread to move almost a field goal. With Nix on the field, it’s hard to imagine this spread staying under 17 before kickoff. Roughly 70% of bettors currently back the Ducks, so this number could hit 18 or 18.5 by Monday.

It’s not surprising to see bettors heavily backing the Over in a game between two teams ranked in the top five in scoring in the nation. Over 75% of bettors back the Over, which has caused the opening total of 66.5 to climb to 67 or 67.5 at four of our five best sportsbooks. Considering how good the Ducks’ defense has been this season, we don’t expect this to climb much higher than it is now, as bettors start to favor the under closer to kickoff.

Fiesta Bowl game info

  • When: Monday, Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
  • Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: Indoors

Liberty vs. Oregon prediction made Friday at 9:32 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.