Kent State vs. Ball State Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 11 Betting Preview
Nothing screams MACtion like two teams with losing records taking the field on a cold night in Indiana, and while neither of these teams is playing inspiring football, my Kent State vs. Ball State prediction is backing the Cardinals as a 1.5-point betting favorite.
Despite the Golden Flash overachieving and removing the interim tag from the prime minister's title, aka head coach Mark Carney, my college football Week 11 predictions don't expect them to win on the road at Scheumann Stadium in Muncie, Ind., on Wednesday when the MACtion gets started at 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU).
✅ Kent State vs. Ball State prediction & expert picks
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🏈 Kent State vs. Ball State preview & score prediction
The bar was about as low as it could have been coming into the season for Kent State, with the Golden Flash having their win total set at 1.5 following the firing of head coach Kenni Burns in April. And while Carney has done more than expected by winning three games as interim before earning the full gig, Kent State is still a directionless program.
Three wins is double the win total line for Kent State, but they came over an FCS team (Merrimack), which the Golden Flash only beat by four, and then an 0-8 UMass program that's the worst in the FBS, and a 3-6 Bowling Green team that immediately fired its offensive coordinator after losing the game. All three of those wins came at home, and two of them were by a combined seven points.
On the road, it's been a much different story, with Kent State going 0-5 and being outscored by an average of 49.6 to 12.4. And while Ball State isn't much better, the Cardinals' home field advantage should make a difference - they beat reigning MAC Champion Ohio at home this season and took down Akron 42-28.
Run the ball, state
Ball State wants to run the football under new head coach Mike Uremovich, who came from fellow Indiana-based school Butler after going 23-11 there over three seasons. His run-heavy approach has worked well at times with the Cardinals leaning on the mobility of QB Kiael Kelly and the explosiveness of running back Qua Ashley.
If those two can get going against a Kent State team that allows the sixth-most rushing yards per game in the country (205.6), Ball State should be able to cover for the sixth time in its last eight games and turn a $10 bet into a $9.09 profit.
Score prediction: Ball State 27, Kent State 23
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🆚 Kent State vs. Ball State matchup to watch
Qua Ashley vs. Kent State front seven
Ashley has been the focal point of Uremovich's offense thus far, and rightfully so. The Kennesaw State transfer has been one of the top running backs in the conference, which is why I'm taking the Over on his rushing yards in this matchup as part of my MAC best bets for Week 11.
But I don't just expect Ashley to run for 70-plus on Kent State, I think he'll find the end zone too, and this price at our best college football betting sites for him to score just once is too good to pass on. Kent State has given up 15 rushing touchdowns in eight games this season, and it's prone to giving up explosive runs. The Golden Flash allow the 10th-highest average yards per carry in the country (5.1).
Meanwhile, Ashley is top 10 in the MAC in rushing yards after contact (387), forced missed tackles (20), and 15-plus-yard runs (6). He's scored five touchdowns in his last six games, and if he can find the end zone against Kent State, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.
Best prop bet: Qua Ashley anytime TD (-110 via FanDuel)
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📈 Kent State vs. Ball State betting trends
| Kent State | Statistic | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | W-L record | 3-5 |
| 5-3 | ATS record | 5-3 |
| 3-5 | O/U record | 4-4 |
| 4.6 | Yards per play | 4.6 |
| 6.3 | Yards allowed per play | 6.0 |
| -0.2 | Turnover margin | -0.4 |
| 2-3 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
| W, 24-21 vs. Bowling Green | Previous result | L, 21-7 vs. Northern Illinois |
🌤️ Kent State vs. Ball State weather
It's expected to be a perfectly brisk evening in Muncie, Ind., on Wednesday, with the forecast calling for 0% precipitation and the temperature sitting around 50 degrees. Wind shouldn't be much of a factor, with it expected to be around 11 mph from the northwest and gusts only getting up to 23 mph.
📺 How to watch Kent State vs. Ball State
- Date: Wednesday, Nov. 5
- Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Scheumann Stadium (Muncie, Ind.)
- TV: ESPNU
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