Kansas State vs. Kansas Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 12: Will Wildcats Continue Rivalry Dominance?

Last Updated: November 18, 2023 3:17 PM EST • 4 minute read X Social Google News Link

We’re calling for the Wildcats to continue their in-state dominance over the Jayhawks in Week 12, as we make our top Kansas State vs. Kansas prediction for the matchup based on the best NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.
The Sunflower Showdown is technically a rivalry, but it has been anything but that in recent years. Kansas State has won every instance of this head-to-head showdown since 2008, and it's covered the spread in each of the last four meetings and seven of the previous 10.
For its part, Kansas (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) is enjoying its best campaign since 2008.
Will this rivalry matchup follow the usual script under the bright lights on Saturday night?
Here is our best Kansas State-Kansas prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Kansas State vs. Kansas prediction: Week 12
Kansas State to win first quarter and full game (+105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The market has steamed this spread north of a touchdown, meaning it's becoming more difficult to find value on the Wildcats. I like this angle given K-State's overall edge in this matchup, and because Kansas has notoriously been getting off to slow starts during the Lance Leipold era.
Kansas State ranks 10th in the country in first-quarter scoring while averaging 8.9 points per game, according to Team Rankings. Kansas is 42nd at 6.6 points per contest during the opening frame. KSU was second in the nation in 2022 while averaging 10.5 points in the first quarter, while KU produced just 5.8 points.
The Jayhawks faced an early 13-point deficit at home against Texas Tech in Week 11, including a 10-0 hole in the first quarter. They've been down double-digits in the first quarter in all three of their 2023 losses.
We expect that trend to continue on Saturday, as Kansas State is motivated to extend its winning streak in this rivalry while maintaining its goal of competing for a Big 12 championship. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks are a bit banged up at key positions on both sides of the ball.
Let's bet on the Wildcats to control this contest from start to finish, and use our bet365 bonus code to get the best value on them doing so.
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Kansas State vs. Kansas best odds
bet365 (+105)
DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas State -1.5 1Q | Kansas State -2.5 1Q | Kansas State -3 1Q | N/A | Kansas State -0.5 1Q |
-108 | -122 | +100 | N/A | -115 |
bet365 is currently the lone shop offering a double result for the first quarter and a full-game winner, giving us a +105 price on the Wildcats to accomplish that feat. I prefer the plus-money odds on that prop rather than laying the points with KSU in the first quarter.
However, the odds across our best sports betting apps show that K-State is expected to get off to a strong start. You need to lay as much as a field goal at one sportsbook, with bet365 offering the best first-quarter odds in the market.
Kansas State vs. Kansas odds
Kansas State vs. Kansas odds analysis
Kansas State was laying between 4.5 and 5.5 in the offseason lookahead markets. The spread opened back up at KSU -6.5 earlier this week, but it's been bet to -8 and -8.5 at most of our best sportsbooks.
The total has dropped from 61.5 to 56.
Kansas State vs. Kansas game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 18, 7 p.m. ET
- Where: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 50 degrees, 6 mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation
Kansas State-Kansas prediction made 11/16/2023 at 1:40 p.m. ET.
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