Kansas State vs. Colorado Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 7

Even with the line moving in favor of the Buffaloes, we're targeting the road favorites in this Big 12 clash on Saturday.

Mike Spector

Last updated: October 12, 2024 11:00 AM EDT • 5 min read

Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders rolls out to pass as we offer our Kansas State vs. Colorado prediction for Saturday's Big 12 matchup in Week 7. — Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders rolls out to pass. Photo by Mike Watters / Imagn Images.

The Kansas State Wildcats (4-1) and Colorado Buffaloes (4-1) are each rested off bye weeks when they meet Saturday at 10:15 p.m. ET in Boulder.

This is the first meeting between these Big 12 championship odds contenders since 2010, and Colorado leads the all-time series (45-20-1)
Kansas State is tied with Indiana and Oklahoma for the No. 18 spot in the AP Poll, which is the first time since 1998 that three teams have occupied the same spot in the rankings
Colorado’s Travis Hunter is high atop the Heisman Trophy odds rankings

Our Kansas State vs. Colorado prediction expects the road favorites to cover the spread in what could turn into an offensive shootout.

Best Kansas State vs. Colorado picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

Against the spread pick: Kansas State -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM) vs. Colorado ⭐⭐⭐
My best bet: Shedeur Sanders Over 306.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kansas State vs. Colorado against the spread prediction: Week 7

Kansas State to cover the spread: -3.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Kansas State vs. Colorado opening odds:

Kansas State: -6 (-110 via BetMGM)
Colorado: +6 (-110 via BetMGM)

Fade Colorado’s recent momentum

Colorado has seemingly turned a corner since halftime of the Nebraska game. The Buffaloes outscored the Cornhuskers 10-0 in the second half of that game (they still lost 28-10) and now have a +63 point differential in the last 14 quarters.

The pessimistic side is that the Buffaloes needed a converted Hail Mary to force overtime and escape with an overtime home win against Baylor. In addition, Colorado’s 48-21 road win at UCF two weeks ago does not look as good after the Knights lost 24-13 to a struggling Florida team last week.

History also tells us to be weary of Colorado’s momentum. It is just 2-8 SU as underdogs in Coach Prime’s tenure, and followed up its first upset over TCU last year by getting drubbed by 36 by Oregon in its next game.

Kansas State’s ground & pound is elite

Kansas State is one of the most elite running teams in the country, ranking seventh in rushing yards and 14th in EPA/Rush.

One of the Wildcats’ only weaknesses offensively is an offensive line that allows pressure on 32.4% of dropbacks. However, Colorado’s pass rush grade ranks 116th, so its defensive front is not built to exploit Kansas State’s poor pass protection.

The Wildcats bend but don’t break

A Colorado offense that thrives on explosive plays may grow frustrated when facing Kansas State’s “bend but don’t break” defense.

Kansas State is a lock-down defensive team in the red zone, ranking in the top 15 in Finishing Drives.

The Wildcats are also capable of making the Buffaloes one-dimensional with how terrific they are against the run. Kansas State allowed Oklahoma State and one of the nation’s best running backs (Ollie Gordon) two explosive runs, and now ranks second in the conference with 91.8 rushing yards per game allowed.

As long as Coach Prime is coach of the Buffaloes, they will always be a public team. That is why it is not surprising that the line has moved so much in their favor, from an opening number of +6 at most of our top sports betting sites.

I am still finding value backing the Wildcats at -3.5, and am doing so at BetMGM, the only sportsbook charging less than the standard -110 juice to lay the points. A $10 winning wager at BetMGM’s -105 odds returns $9.52 in profits.

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Kansas State vs. Colorado best bet

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Shedeur Sanders Over 306.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If Kansas State does cover, it will likely be in a shootout, given how prolific Colorado’s passing attack is.

Shedeur Sanders has taken the third-most sacks of any quarterback in the country (17), but Colorado still ranks ninth with a 60% pass rate. Sanders faces a Kansas State defense that ranks 111th in passes defended and 115th in passing yards allowed.

I would not put anyone off backing Travis Hunter’s receiving props, considering Kansas State’s top two cornerbacks have allowed 34 of 51 targets to be caught.

This is a four-star play, as Sanders is the only quarterback in college football to throw for 100-plus passing touchdowns and have 20 or fewer interceptions. In addition, he ranks fifth with 11,843 career passing yards.

I am backing Sanders’ yardage total instead of the Over of 2.5 passing touchdowns given the strength of Kansas State’s red zone defense. Sanders has an O/U as high as 309.5 passing yards at bet365 and Caesars, so I am taking advantage of the best number at BetMGM.

Phil Wood's Kansas State vs. Colorado player prop bets double down on this pick.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Kansas State vs. Colorado odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Kansas State vs. Colorado game info

When: Saturday, Oct. 12
Kickoff: 10:15 p.m. ET
Where: Folsom Field (Boulder, Colo.)
How to watch: ESPN
Weather: 70 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph S
Favorite: Kansas State -3.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”