Indiana vs. Ohio State Prediction & Picks: College Football Week 13
The college football “Game of the Day” on Saturday is a Big Ten tilt between two AP-top-5 teams as the Ohio State Buckeyes host the Indiana Hoosiers.
- Ohio State has won 28 consecutive meetings with Indiana and leads the all-time series 79-12-5
- This is the fourth time these two teams have met with both ranked in the AP top 25, and it's the first top-five meeting between the schools
- This game serves as a de facto Big Ten Championship elimination game, as neither team can afford a loss
As part of our Week 13 college football predictions, my Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction recognizes that a 10-0 team as a double-digit underdog is uncommon, but expects the Buckeyes’ experience in big games to make the difference.
Ohio State is a 13.5-point home favorite, with the O/U at 51.5 points. Kickoff from “The Horseshoe” at Ohio Stadium is set for noon E.T. airing on FOX.
Be sure to also take a look back at our Indiana vs. Ohio State early picks to see how this game changed throughout the week, and our Indiana vs. Ohio State player props for a closer look at this matchup.
Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction & best bet
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Ohio State -13 (-112 via DraftKings) vs. Indiana ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Jeremiah Smith Under 79.5 receiving yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Indiana vs. Ohio State ATS prediction: Week 13
Ohio State to cover the spread: -13 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%
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Ohio State has more big-game experience
Four Big Ten teams - Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State - are 9-1 or better this season, and the Buckeyes are the only ones who have or will have played the other three by the season’s end.
There isn't much wiggle room in the Big Ten, and neither of these teams can afford a loss.
Ohio State’s first two games against Oregon and Penn State were road contests in hostile environments, and the Buckeyes would be the top-ranked undefeated team in the country if not for a one-point loss at Eugene
Having played those opponents already means this week will mark the first time in school history Ohio State will play three top-five matchups in the same year.
On a much smaller scale, Ohio State should have the edge in preparing for a noon kickoff, seeing as this is its fifth consecutive such game since that primetime tilt at Oregon.
Buckeyes’ defensive statistics mean more
The Buckeyes and Hoosiers rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the Big Ten in several defensive categories, including rushing defense and total defense. They also each rank in the top three in scoring defense and are top-five pass defenses, and they rank second and eighth, respectively, in stop rate.
Despite the similar defensive resumes, Ohio State’s FBS-best 0.86 points per drive allowed looks much more impressive than Indiana's 1.38 points per drive allowed, given the caliber of competition each has faced.
After removing the three common opponents (Northwestern, Nebraska, and Michigan State), Indiana’s four Big Ten opponents to this point have averaged an 83.3 SP+ offensive ranking; Ohio State’s four have an average rank of 46, including two top-12 offensive opponents.
History is not on Indiana’s side
Per Evan Abrams, only one double-digit underdog that was undefeated in its 11th game or later has won outright since 2004. And in the six instances of a double-digit underdog playing in its 10th game or later since 2018, five of those have had terrible offensive performances, scoring 10 or fewer points.
The last time we saw an undefeated double-digit underdog this late in the season in a conference game was Notre Dame in 2020, which lost 34-10 to Clemson.
Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day has won 56 of the 57 games outright that his teams have been a double-digit favorite, and he is 32-23-2 ATS in that split.
I have all the respect in the world for Curt Cignetti's job at Indiana since coming over from James Madison. But playing a team as talented as the Buckeyes will have some growing pains.
I am making this wager at DraftKings, the only top sports betting site offering Ohio State at -13 compared to -13.5. A $10 winning wager would pay out $18.93.
Our C Jackson Cowart also backed the Buckeyes earlier this week as part of his college football Week 13 expert picks.
Indiana vs. Ohio State best bet
Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Jeremiah Smith Under 79.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Cignetti didn't enjoy a successful tenure at James Madison and kick off his Indiana coaching career going 10-0 by consistently letting the other team’s best weapon beat him.
Last week, the Buckeyes' freshman receiver turned in his third 100-yard receiving game of the season and has now led Ohio State in receiving yards in seven games. However, Indiana’s defense entered last week’s game against Michigan ranked 18th in Pass Success, fifth in Havoc, and 16th in PFF Coverage grade.
Smith has exceeded this projected total in four of six home games, and one of his 100-yard games came against top-ranked Oregon. But Penn State made the necessary adjustments in holding Smith to 55 yards and 13.8 yards per reception (both his lowest over the last four weeks), and I expect the Hoosiers to employ a similar game plan.
Under backers get the best price and number by making this wager at bet365. Caesars has the under of 79.5 yards juiced to -118, while some of our other best sports betting apps, like FanDuel, have the line set lower at 75.5.
Indiana vs. Ohio State odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Indiana vs. Ohio State live odds
Indiana vs. Ohio State opening odds
- Indiana +11.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
- Ohio State -11.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Indiana vs. Ohio State game info
- When: Saturday, Nov. 23
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 48 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 14 mph W
- Favorite: Ohio State -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
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