Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Clash in the Sun Belt
Road teams have gone 4-1 ATS in five prior head-to-head meetings between the Georgia Southern Eagles and Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. Read on for our top Georgia Southern-Louisiana college football picks and predictions for Week 11.
Georgia Southern (6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U) has more than exceeded expectations this season. The Eagles are one win away from bowl eligibility after finishing near the bottom of the Sun Belt. All five of Southern’s conference games to date have been decided by eight points or less.
After winning 10-plus games in each of the last three seasons, Louisiana (5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U) experienced some regression in 2022. The Ragin’ Cajuns boast only two conference wins to date. Having lost two straight coming into Thursday’s matchup, Louisiana now must win two of its final three to become bowl eligible.
Here are our best college football picks for the Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Week 11 matchup (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Check out our college football Week 11 roundup, games to watch, and best against-the-spread picks.
Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPNU
- Location: Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA
- Weather: 65 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 4-6-mph winds NW
Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Odds
Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Odds Analysis
The opening spread for this contest favored Louisiana by three points at home. 36 hours before kickoff, the market consensus continued to list the Cajuns as a field goal favorite. 61% of all ATS bets placed at DraftKings Sportsbook are on Louisiana.
Unlike the stationary point spread, the game total moved relative to the opening line. The current market consensus of 61.5 sits three full points higher than the initial offering of 58.5.
In addition, it's hard to miss the drastic disparity between the ticket count and handle distribution on the total. While the Over has only taken 41% of all bets thus far, that minority percentage accounted for 85% of all money wagered on the total at DraftKings.
Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Picks
Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana ATS Pick
Georgia Southern +3.5 (-115) ★★
Even though Louisiana is the home team, there's very little to support the Ragin’ Cajuns laying points in this spot. Georgia Southern is no stranger to success as a road underdog. With FanDuel offering an extra half-point of value on the key number of three, backing the Eagles is the way to go.
No matter who Georgia Southern plays against, its offense consistently delivers. Many observers doubted how a program that ran a triple-option system would fare in the first year of transition to head coach Clay Helton’s spread attack. With transfer quarterback Kyle Vantrease at the controls, the Eagles drastically outperformed.
Georgia Southern ranks 37th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and sixth in passing yards per game. Vantrease also ranks fourth among FBS quarterbacks in passing yards this season.
While the Eagles would prefer to open things up in the passing game by running the ball, they've won games even when their ground offense couldn’t get going. During an upset victory over James Madison last month, they scored 45 points despite finishing with only 12 rushing yards.
Louisiana has been quite solid defensively this season. However, the Cajuns are susceptible to opponents with respectable passing attacks. Georgia Southern can certainly pile up points against quality defenses.
Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana O/U Pick
Over 61.5 (-110) ★★★
As prolific as Georgia Southern’s offense has been, it’s a different story for the defense. The Eagles only returned five starters from last year, and the unit’s inexperience shows. Entering Thursday’s matchup, Southern ranks 127th out of 131 FBS teams in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Combine what Vantrease and the Eagles’ offense can do with a very underwhelming defense and it’s no surprise the game total climbed three full points relative to the opening number.
Although Louisiana only surpassed 24 points twice this year, it’s worth noting the Ragin’ Cajuns have gone up against a number of better defensive Sun Belt teams. When matched against lesser opponents like Arkansas State and Southern Mississippi, Louisiana is much more successful.
Since Georgia Southern ranks as the Sun Belt Conference's worst defense in terms of adjusted efficiency, bettors should anticipate Cajuns QB Ben Wooldridge and Louisiana's O-line having one of their best games of the year Thursday. With no rain and minimal wind, weather won't be a factor.
The line move has transpired despite 60% of bets on the Under, a disagreement between sharp bettors and the general public. Although the best of the number may be gone, bettors are still advised to bet the Over.
Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Prop Pick
Georgia Southern team total: Over 28.5 (-118) ★★★
With all due respect to Louisiana’s D, betting against Vantrease and Georgia Southern's offense is simply not an option. It’s no exaggeration to proclaim the Eagles’ offense as one of the best among all mid-major programs.
Georgia Southern surpassed the 30-point threshold in all but two games. Since the Ragin’ Cajuns expect to be successful against a vulnerable Eagles' defense, Vantrease and Co. have no choice but to air it out to keep pace.
Bettors should also note the market value. FanDuel’s prop line of 28.5 sits one full point lower than where DraftKings currently lists Southern’s team total.
Where to Bet on Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Georgia Southern vs. Louisiana picks made 11/9/2022 at 1:15 p.m. ET
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