Florida vs. Tennessee Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 7

Tennessee is seeking revenge after winning just two of 19 head-to-head tilts against the Gators, and we like their chances of doing exactly that.
Florida Gators running back Montrell Johnson Jr. breaks through a hole as we offer our Florida vs. Tennessee prediction.
Florida Gators running back Montrell Johnson Jr. breaks through a hole. Photo by Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun via Imagn

The Tennessee Volunteers, coming off their first loss of the season, are looking for revenge in their SEC home opener against their biggest conference rival, the Florida Gators.

  • This is the first of Tennessee’s four consecutive home games over the next five weeks
  • Tennessee’s 14 points last week were its fewest in a game against an unranked opponent since November 2020
  • The Volunteers’ College Football Playoff odds dropped from 79% to 43% after last week’s loss, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor

Our Florida vs. Tennessee prediction expects the Volunteers to bounce back at home against a Gators team that has had their number in recent years. The below picks are part of our Week 7 college football predictions

Best Florida vs. Tennessee picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Tennessee -15.5 (-108 via FanDuel) vs. Florida ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Montrell Johnson Jr. Under 63.5 rushing yards (-127 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Florida vs. Tennessee against the spread prediction: Week 7

Tennessee to cover the spread: - 15.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐

Florida vs. Tennessee opening odds:

Ignore the recent history between these teams

There has been a case of reverse line movement in this game despite the tickets being 2/1 in favor of the Volunteers, which suggests sharp action on the road underdogs.

However, those bettors may be looking at Florida’s recent dominance in this series as a reason to back the Gators, but not much of that shouldn't apply to this matchup.

In this series' history since 2005, Florida has scored 30.8 points per game, averaged 391 yards per game, committed 26 turnovers, and won 17 times.

By contrast, Tennessee has 18.3 points per game in that span, averaging 329 yards per game, committing 46 turnovers, and winning twice. Twelve of Florida’s 17 wins in that span were by double-digits, but I am throwing all of that out the window in this matchup for one big reason: Nico Iamaleava.

Iamaleava’s impact on the Tennessee offense

Tennessee’s offense averaged 54 points and 566 yards per game through the first four games of the season. It also averaged 6.3 20-yard plays per game while punting just 10 times. That makes last week’s performance against Arkansas all the more disappointing, as the Volunteers scored 14 points, totaled 332 yards, had two 20-yard plays, and punted seven times. In fact, Tennessee’s 332 yards of total offense were tied for the third-fewest in a game under head coach Josh Heupel. 

Tennessee’s offensive shortcomings were due in large part to poor pass protection. Arkansas pressured the quarterback on 36% of dropbacks despite entering the game with an SEC-low 24% pressure rate, and its four sacks tied a season-high.

Playing at home should help Iamaleava communicate much more effectively with his offensive line, and I expect Heupel and the coaching staff to be better prepared for what the Gators may throw their way.

Florida’s poor road ATS record

Florida has not done much winning away from “The Swamp,” going 4-11 SU in its last 15 road games and covering the spread at a 40% clip. Meanwhile, Heupel’s teams between his tenures at UCF and Tennessee often jump on opponents quickly, covering the first-half spread more than three out of every four times when laying a touchdown or more.

All of our top sports betting sites are in unison with a point spread of -15.5, but FanDuel is the only one charging less than the standard -110 juice to back the favorites. With the -108 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.26.

Best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%

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Florida vs. Tennessee best bet

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Montrell Johnson Jr. Under 63.5 rushing yards (-126) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tennessee’s run defense allows 68.0 rushing yards per game, which ranks second in the SEC and second among all FBS teams. In addition, the Volunteers have an FBS-best third-down percentage defense (22.1% third-down conversion rate allowed), and Tennessee is especially stingy in the red zone, ranking 10th.

Tennessee’s offense should also aid in keeping Montrell Johnson’s rushing total low. The Volunteers convert third downs at a top-25 rate (48.1%), while the Gators rank 15th in the SEC (and 106th nationally) in third-down defense (44.3% allowed).

Johnson’s 58 carries are nearly more than triple the next-highest total of any teammate. But this is a four-star play as he has carried 11 or fewer times in three of five games and was completely shut down for a -7 rushing yard day with a long of two yards against a stout Texas A&M defense.

A $10 winning bet pays a profit of $7.87. 

Best odds: -127 via Caesars | Implied probability: 55.95%

Florida vs. Tennessee odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Florida vs. Tennessee game info

  • When: Saturday, Oct. 12
  • Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Where: Neyland Stadium (Knoxville, Tenn.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 75 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 3 mph SW
  • Favorite: Tennessee -15.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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