College Football Upset Picks, Predictions: 3 Teams on Disaster Watch for Week 7

For the first time in program history, undefeated James Madison is ranked in the AP Top 25. Can the high-powered Georgia Southern offense catch the Dukes basking in the moment and spoil the party? Check out our college football upset picks and predictions for Week 7.

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of “College Football Disaster Watch”. With so many big games taking place across the country this Saturday, the occurrence of shocking outright upsets is simply inevitable. This week’s college football upset picks range from one of the biggest games of the weekend to a school that just achieved its first-ever AP Poll ranking.

Check out our top matchups to watch of Week 7, as well as our college football power rankings.

Before diving in, it’s worth highlighting one of the stipulations that are considered when penning this weekly column. In order for a game to fit the “Disaster Watch” label, the underdog must be priced at 2-1 or longer to win outright. Typically, this requires a team to be at least a 6-point underdog on the spread in order to be included. In essence, while there are certainly other underdogs capable of winning outright, this column’s focus is on the true “disastrous” upsets.

Now, without further ado, here are our top college football upset picks for Week 7 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

College Football Upset Picks for Week 7

Week 7 College Football Upset Predictions

Penn State (+220) vs. Michigan

In some ways, it’s incredible that Penn State fits into this category as a +220 underdog this week. Readers of SBR’s weekly College Football Top 25 Power Rankings column are undoubtedly aware that the Nittany Lions have been situated above Michigan for a few weeks now. It makes sense for the Wolverines to be home favorites, but a 7-point spread is far too steep.

With an extra week of prep thanks to a timely Week 6 bye, Penn State is not a team to be taken lightly, even on the road in Ann Arbor. In two previous road games against Power 5 competition this season, head coach James Franklin’s squad is 2-0. A trip to The Plains saw the Nittany Lions overwhelm Auburn and solidify themselves as a legitimate threat in the Big Ten. 

Although the court of public opinion is mixed regarding PSU quarterback Sean Clifford, bettors cannot underestimate his experience in a spot like this. The emergence of freshman running back Nick Singleton has suddenly given Penn State a three-headed monster in the backfield. If Clifford can play mistake-free football, the Lions should be able to wear down Michigan’s defensive front on the ground.

On the other side of the ball, Penn State’s defense is set to give young Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy a tougher test than anything he has faced to date. Penn State cornerback Joey Porter is an NFL-caliber talent who is capable of erasing Michigan wideout Ronnie Bell entirely in this matchup. 

While the primary offensive solution for the Wolverines this season has been to lean on Blake Corum and the ground game, that will be easier said than done on Saturday. The Nittany Lions come in allowing only 79.8 rushing yards per game, the fifth-best mark in the country.

James Madison vs. Georgia Southern (+310)

Shoutout to James Madison University for breaking into the AP Top 25 this week. Here in the SBR Upset Alert Office, we are doing our part to celebrate by putting the Dukes on notice ahead of Saturday’s road trip to Georgia Southern.

For those wondering how James Madison has been so successful right away upon making the jump from the FCS to the Sun Belt Conference, the answer starts on defense. Entering Week 7, JMU continues to lead the nation in run defense. The Dukes have allowed all of 42.0 yards on the ground per game to opponents this season. Combine this with a top-20 ranking against the pass and opponents are limited when it comes to reliable options to attack this nasty defense. 

With an undefeated record and a shiny new AP Poll ranking, it’s no shock to see swaths of public bettors backing James Madison as a double-digit road favorite this week. However, recent history has not been kind to Sun Belt teams upon breaking into the AP Top 25. What’s more, other than Appalachian State, the Dukes have yet to face much quality competition.

That’s where Georgia Southern comes into play. With Clay Helton taking over the program and implementing a drastic change in offensive philosophy, many expected the Eagles to struggle this year. That has hardly been the case as Southern ranks 13th in passing yards per game and has averaged 32.6 points per game against FBS-level competition.

Air Force vs. UNLV (+295)

None other than Sin City itself is home to our final college football upset pick for Week 7. The humiliating nature of UNLV’s loss last week has undoubtedly scared some bettors off. It’s also worth noting that quarterback Doug Brumfield remains day-to-day with head and ankle injuries. With all of that said, what has Air Force done to be laying 10 points in this spot?

For the second time this season, the Falcons were upset on the road by a Mountain West foe last week. Suddenly, a season that began with conference championship aspirations now sees Air Force sitting at 1-2 in league games. The fact that UNLV had its way in Logan with the same Utah State team that beat the Falcons last week only furthers the notion that this spread is too high.

Prior to exiting last week’s loss with the aforementioned injuries, Brumfield was enjoying a breakout season. On the bright side, the Rebels have other capable players in the quarterback room. Cameron Friel is the reigning MWC Freshman of the Year. Tennessee transfer Harrison Bailey could also be in the mix for snaps on Saturday night.

Of course, UNLV will also need to put forth a solid defensive effort against the run to have a shot. The fact that the Rebels come in as a top-50 run defense nationally bodes well for their chances. Haaziq Daniels is a capable passer when needed. Overall though, Air Force has nowhere near the kind of aerial attack as the San Jose State team that beat UNLV last week.

Where to Bet on College Football Upset Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

College football upset picks made 10/11/2022 at 6:27 p.m. ET.