Buffalo vs. Liberty Prediction & Picks Today: Bahamas Bowl Odds
It's an early morning for the Buffalo Bulls and Liberty Flames, as they'll square off in the Bahamas Bowl on Saturday at 11 a.m. ET (ESPN2) in what's the final non-playoff bowl game of the college football season.
Buffalo have won their last three bowl games, and they were victorious in each of their final four regular-season games this season.
Meanwhile, Liberty is playing in its sixth bowl game, and it's won the last three meetings between these teams.
Buffalo will be looking for revenge for a 55-27 loss last year, and our Buffalo vs. Liberty prediction expects things to go differently for the Bulls this time.
This is one of our last college bowl game predictions this week ahead of the CFP semifinals, so let's make it count.
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Buffalo vs. Liberty prediction & best pick: Bahamas Bowl
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Buffalo -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Liberty ⭐⭐⭐
- My best pick: Buffalo first half moneyline (-124 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Buffalo vs. Liberty ATS prediction
Buffalo to cover the spread: -2.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Buffalo’s historic season
Buffalo hired a new head coach, Pete Lembo, for this season after finishing 3-9 last year. That hire paid off immediately, as Lembo is the first Buffalo head coach to win eight games in his debut.
The Bulls’ eight wins is already their highest win total since 2019, their five-win turnaround from last season was tied for the fourth-best in the nation, and they went 4-0 in November for the first time in in their FBS existence.
Lembo has Buffalo searching for its ninth win for the third time in program history and its second since becoming an FBS team in 1999.
On the other side, quarterback Kaidon Salter led Liberty to a team-record 13 wins in 2023. But this point spread jumped the fence once Salter entered the transfer portal.
The Bulls defense is breathing a sigh of relief not having to face him this year, after he racked up 410 total yards and six touchdowns in last year’s blowout win.
The Bulls can have success on the ground
Buffalo’s offense ranks in the top 25 in EPA, and two of its top four rushers averaged more than five yards per carry.
The Bulls also have the luxury of starting the same five on the offensive line every game this season. It is a disciplined offensive line that does not put the team in bad positions, as they have been called for just two holding penalties all season.
Buffalo faces a Liberty defense that allowed explosive plays on 16% of zone reads and had a 46% Success Rate defensively on such plays.
Turnovers should loom large
Buffalo is 6-0 on the season when it wins the turnover battle. That is a good sign entering this bowl matchup, considering the Bulls were +6 on the year in turnover margin to lead the Mid-American Conference.
The Bulls led the MAC with 12 interceptions and two pick-sixes. They also had seven interceptions over the last five games of the regular season with at least one interception in all five.
The Bulls are plenty familiar with Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell, not only facing him last season but also in 2021 and 2022 when he was with Coastal Carolina.
That should help Buffalo come up with a defensive game plan to slow down a Flames team that finished a disappointing fourth in CUSA after being the preseason favorite, which included a loss to a then 0-5 Kennesaw State team.
As long as I am laying less than a field goal with the Bulls, they are worth paying up slightly in juice. Through BetMGM’s -115 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $8.70 in profits.
Buffalo vs. Liberty best pick
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Buffalo first half moneyline ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -124 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 55.36%
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Not only will Liberty not have Slater under center, but three starting offensive linemen are out after entering the transfer portal. It will likely take the Flames some time to gel offensively.
After averaging 125 yards passing over the first six games, Bulls quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has averaged 249 passing yards over the last six games, including a career-best 309 yards against Western Michigan.
Ogbonna has thrown 14 touchdown passes over that same six-game stretch, including three touchdown passes in each of the last three games. He's also rushed for 311 yards and eight touchdowns on the season — the most by a UB quarterback in its FBS era.
Ogbonna’s dual-threat ability has opened running lanes for running back Al-Jay Henderson, who has averaged 118 rushing yards over the last seven games, including a career-best 185 yards against Kent State in the regular-season finale. The third-team All-MAC selection is just 41 yards shy of becoming the 11th player in program history to rush for 1,000 yards in a season.
This is a four-star play, as Liberty went a disappointing 3-8 ATS this year, and revenge should be on Buffalo’s mind for last year’s 28-point loss to the Flames.
Buffalo vs. Liberty odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Buffalo vs. Liberty live odds
Buffalo vs. Liberty opening odds:
- Buffalo: +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Liberty: -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Buffalo vs. Liberty odds movement
This spread has done more than a 180 since opening, as Buffalo moved from a +2.5 underdog to a -4.5 favorite. In fact, this spread blew right by the key number we got Buffalo at earlier this week when we backed them to cover as -2.5 favorites. Now, you're going to need them to win by more than a field goal for them to cover.
Buffalo vs. Liberty injuries
Bahamas Bowl game info
- When: Saturday, Jan. 4
- Kickoff: 11 a.m. ET
- Where: Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 73 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 15 mph N
- Favorite: Buffalo -2.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
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