Boston College vs. Pittsburgh Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 12: Panthers Keep Underachieving?
There's just one Week 12 college football game featured on Thursday night, as the Pittsburgh Panthers host the Boston College Eagles in an ACC battle, and we offer our top Boston College vs. Pittsburgh prediction based on the best college football odds.
The Boston College Eagles, standing at 6-4 (3-3 ACC), experienced a disappointing conclusion to their five-game winning streak, suffering a 48-22 defeat at home against Virginia Tech. During their streak, the Eagles notably clinched four out of five victories by slim margins, often securing wins by seven points or fewer, showcasing their ability to prevail in tightly contested matchups.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Panthers (2-8, 1-5 ACC) have suffered four consecutive conference losses, with a combined score of 131-44. In their most recent defeat, they fell 28-13 to a Syracuse team that had previously lost five straight contests. Notably, the Panthers' lone ACC win — a 17-point victory over Louisville — stands out as one of the most surprising results of the college football season.
As part of our Week 12 college football predictions, here is our best Boston College vs. Pittsburgh prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Boston College vs. Pittsburgh prediction: Week 12
Boston College +3.5 alt. spread (-148 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Editor's note: The price for this spread has now shift to -128 through FanDuel.
While Boston College and Pittsburgh are both coming off losses in what were winnable games last week, the Panthers have to feel much more dejected. Pittsburgh was a 2.5-point favorite over Syracuse, while Boston College opened as a slight one-point favorite over Virginia Tech before the line jumped the fence, and the Eagles kicked off as 2.5-point underdogs. Thus, while a 26-point loss to the Hokies is disappointing, even bettors and oddsmakers alike recognized the upswing that Virginia Tech is on, so we are not penalizing Boston College much for the loss.
Eagles quarterback Thomas Castellanos threw for just 110 yards against a Hokies secondary that entered last week ranked in the top 20 in the country in Success Rate and EPA per play. However, he should not see such resistance from a Pittsburgh defense that ranks outside the top 90 in Pass Success and Havoc. This unit entered last week ranked 100th or worse in PFF’s Coverage and Tackling grades.
Our Shane Jackson is also buying Boston College's passing offense in his Week 12 player props.
While Pittsburgh’s strength defensively is against the run (it ranks in the top 30 in Rush Success and Line Yards), it was just gashed for a season-high 382 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry by Syracuse, which makes one wonder if the Panthers are playing with any motivation down the stretch.
Pittsburgh has seen a rapid offensive decline, going from ranking sixth in Offensive SP+ two years ago to barely inside the top 50 last year to a current No. 91 ranking.
Panthers quarterback Christian Veilleux adds nothing with his legs and has completed better than 59.1% of his passes once this season. He has posted a 32.9 QBR or worse in two of his last three starts, and we do not envision the Panthers winning this game by more than a field goal, especially since they have underachieved relative to their SP+ projections in 80% of their games this season.
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Boston College vs. Pittsburgh best odds
+3.5 (-148)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | +3.5 | -2.5 | +3.5 | +3.5 |
| -110 | -148 | -110 | -163 | -150 |
Not all of our best sportsbooks offer alternate spread options at the moment, but among those that do, FanDuel has the lowest price (-148) to back the Eagles getting a field goal with the hook.
If we could get a straight spread of +3 at -110 odds, we would back that as well, but the alternate spread is a great backup option in case the line never reaches the key number of three. At anything less than a field goal, we advise taking Boston College on the moneyline for optimal value (the best price is currently +112 at FanDuel).
Boston College vs. Pittsburgh odds
Boston College vs. Pittsburgh odds analysis
Caesars is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a line as low as Pittsburgh -1.5, as FanDuel, BetMGM, and BetRivers are on the high end at -2.5. FanDuel and BetMGM opened at -1.5, while the most interesting movement has been at DraftKings, where the line jumped the fence multiple times from +1 to -1 before settling in at Pittsburgh -2 for most of Monday. Pittsburgh has gotten the slight majority of the early betting support, with 61% of the early wagers on the Panthers.
BetRivers is the lone sportsbook offering a total of 46.5, as the rest of its competitors are split between O/Us of 47 and 47.5. Early wagers are divided 59/41 in support of the Over, and all eight of Pittsburgh’s previous eight games at Acrisure Stadium against non-AP ranked opponents have gone Over the projected total.
Boston College vs. Pittsburgh game info
- When: Thursday, Nov. 16 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 64 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph S
Boston College-Pittsburgh prediction made 11/14/2023 at 6:08 a.m. ET.
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