College Football Betting Trends to Know for Week 1: Where History Leans in 5 Prominent Matchups

Cincinnati has rarely been a betting underdog in recent years. However, when the Bearcats have been in the position of catching points, a strong Over/Under betting trend has emerged. This and much more comprise our list of Week 1 trends to know in college football.

The atmosphere inside my home office is quite giddy with anticipation for the season’s first full slate of college football games. Week 1 is set to span five full days and the excitement is palpable. If last week’s mini-card managed to provide several fascinating betting trends, one can only imagine what we may uncover in Week 1!

Each week throughout the 2022 college football season, SBR will be sharing a handful of noteworthy betting trends. Readers of this weekly column can expect a fun mix of lopsided historic results and mind-blowing data.

For those who caught the Week 0 edition of this column, you may have been tracking the featured trends right along with us as the games played out. Final outcomes saw three of the five trends hold true to form. Furthermore, the two losers (Utah State and Hawaii) were both trends that we suggested might have a hard time holding form. 

As always, one should never bet solely based on a historical trend. That said, they can certainly assist in your handicapping process.

Here are our top five college football betting trends to know for Week 1 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Top College Football Betting Trends for Week 1

Cincinnati vs. Arkansas

The Under is 10-0 in Cincinnati’s last 10 games as an underdog.

Admittedly, this is one of the toughest games on the board to develop a strong opinion on. Cincinnati lost a ton of talent from last year’s storybook team, but head coach Luke Fickell did a nice job of reloading. While choosing a side may be nearly impossible, this betting trend has little to do with who ultimately emerges victorious on Saturday.

So, can bettors glean anything from the strong correlation with totals cashing the Under in games where Cincy is the betting underdog? Well, the playoff semifinal against Alabama was the only data point from last year that would be applicable as the Bearcats were favored in every single one of their 13 wins.

Going back further, Cincinnati was actually only an underdog on one occasion in 2020 as well. Case in point, the vast majority of outcomes that this trend considers are now three years old. Saturday’s total sits at 52.

Troy vs. Ole Miss

Ole Miss has posted an 18-8 ATS record when playing at home and ranked in the AP Top 25 over the last decade.

There’s a reason why Ole Miss made sure to up the pay and extend the contract of head coach Lane Kiffin in the offseason. The Rebels may have come up short in the Sugar Bowl, but it was still a tremendous 2021 season. For the first time in school history, Ole Miss reached double-digit wins in the regular season.

As far as our college football betting trend to know, the data extends back much further than Kiffin’s tenure in Oxford. Over the last 10 years, Ole Miss covered the spread in roughly 70% of home games when ranked in the AP top 25. 

With the Rebels ranked No. 21 in the preseason AP Poll, this trend applies to Saturday afternoon’s home game against Troy. Ole Miss is laying 21.5 points to its Sun Belt opponents. As a double-digit home favorite at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium last year, Ole Miss went 2-1 ATS. Furthermore, both of the covers notably came early in the season against inferior nonconference opponents.

While continuing this historical trend may seem like a rather tall order given the hefty number, Troy carries a rather dubious trend of its own into this Week 1 contest. In their last 10 games as a road underdog, the Trojans have gone just 2-8 ATS.

Utah vs. Florida

Utah went 1-4 ATS as a road favorite in 2021.

Earlier this week, we featured Saturday night’s showdown between seventh-ranked Utah and Florida prominently in our “Reading Between the Lines” column. Despite the absence of a ranking next to their name, the Gators actually opened as small favorites. The spread has since moved and settled in at Utah -3, which brings the featured trend above into play.

Unlike our first two college football betting trends in this article, this one deals exclusively with recent outcomes. Utah won 10 games last season and captured the first Pac-12 Conference title in school history. With the majority of the roster returning, expectations are high that 2022 will be another fruitful season.

Despite all of the success they achieved last year, the Utes struggled to meet expectations on the road, at least as far as the betting market is concerned. In five games as a road favorite last year, Utah managed to cover the spread only once.

Recent precedent suggests that Utah is vulnerable against the number when favored on the road. For that matter, traveling to play a season-opener in The Swamp is arguably a much tougher environment than much of what the Utes encountered last season.

Louisville vs. Syracuse

The favorite covered the spread in each of the last nine head-to-head meetings between Louisville and Syracuse.

We head to Upstate New York for our fourth featured trend of Week 1. Louisville and Syracuse are set to open their respective seasons with a conference game against one another. With both schools residing in the ACC’s Atlantic Division, they have played each other every year since joining the conference.

The trend that states favorites have covered the spread in each of the last nine meetings between these schools dates back to 2012. Louisville and Syracuse did not play one another in 2013 as realignment saw them spend one season in different conferences. 

The Orange may have gotten the better of the last Big East game between them in 2012, but it is the Cardinals who have dominated this series with the ACC logo displayed at the 25-yard-line. The last three years have been particularly ugly as Louisville has won by margins of 22, 30 and 38 points, respectively.

Overall, there is optimism surrounding both programs ahead of the new season. In fact, based on the schedules, this Week 1 clash could go a long way toward deciding which school ultimately achieves bowl eligibility. Based on the recent dominance of favorites in the head-to-head series, this betting trend gives the edge to Louisville.

The Cardinals are laying 4.5 points as the road favorite.

Kent State vs. Washington

Kent State is 0-7 ATS as an underdog in true road and neutral site games over the last two seasons.

How about a little Week 1 “Pac-12 After Dark” action to wrap up this week’s college football betting trends to know? To be fair, only one team from the Conference of Champions will be on the field late Saturday night when Kent State and Washington get their respective seasons started. The Huskies are 23-point home favorites. 

If recent history is any indication, bettors may want to consider laying over three full touchdowns with Washington. It has not been pretty for Kent State under head coach Sean Lewis as a road dog. The Golden Flashes are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road and neutral site games when catching points.

Last season, in three games that featured lopsided point spreads similar to the posted line for this week’s contest in Seattle, Kent State failed to cover any of the following numbers:

• +29 at Texas A&M
• +22 at Iowa
• +14 at Maryland

Oh, and Saturday night’s game is merely the first of three brutal nonconference games the Golden Flashes will play this season. Next week, they will be in Norman to face Oklahoma. KSU will also close out September in Athens against Georgia in three weeks’ time.

Where to Bet on College Football

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

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