Auburn vs. Georgia Picks, Predictions College Football Week 6: Public Fading Bulldogs
The Georgia Bulldogs dropped to No. 2 in the AP Pool and look to get right against the Auburn Tigers in Week 6. We look at the top picks for Auburn-Georgia below.
Georgia closed as a 31-point favorite against Missouri last week but barely squeaked past with a 26-22 win to remain undefeated. While that was Georgia's closest call of the season to date, it was the third time the Bulldogs failed to cover the spread.
Visiting Auburn comes off a 21-17 loss to LSU but one in which the Tigers covered an 8-point spread. Auburn beat Missouri 17-14 in overtime the week before.
Be sure to check out our college football best bets and all of our Week 6 picks.
Here are our college football picks for the Week 6 matchup between Auburn and Georgia (odds via BetMGM, BetRivers, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Auburn vs. Georgia Game Info
Date: Saturday, Oct. 8, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
Weather: 74 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 3-4 mph winds E
Auburn vs. Georgia Odds
Auburn vs. Georgia Odds Analysis
The Tigers have drawn 57% of the tickets and 73% of the handle with the points but the spread has still moved slightly in Georgia's favor. The consensus opening line of Georgia -27.5 sat at 28.5 but moved back to -27.5 prior to kickoff.
Tickets and money have also come in on the Over to move the line from 48.5 to 49.5.
Auburn vs. Georgia Picks
Auburn vs. Georgia ATS Pick
Georgia -29.5 (-110) ★★
It would be one thing if all of Georgia’s games so far this season had played out like last week’s win over Missouri. Of course, that is hardly the case. The Bulldogs earned dominant wins over two teams in Oregon and South Carolina that are arguably better than Mizzou. Plus, despite how close the score was, Georgia actually outgained the Tigers by nearly 200 yards.
Taking some of the underlying stats and previous results into consideration, one has to believe that the ‘Dawgs were simply sleepwalking in Columbia last week. This would make sense, especially given that UGA was also nowhere close to its best two weeks ago against Kent State.
After getting a major scare from one of the SEC’s weaker teams, it seems quite logical that Georgia will be more focused on the task at hand this week against Auburn. With Vanderbilt looming next week, there is no reason for Kirby Smart’s team to be looking ahead.
While four touchdowns is a lot to lay, there is certainly an element of confidence in the fact that Auburn has largely been dysfunctional on offense this season. To Robby Ashford’s credit, he threw for 337 yards against LSU last week. That said, the Tigers failed to score a single point in the second half. Clearly, there is still work to be done.
Like LSU, the Bulldogs should be able to bottle up Tank Bigsby and the Auburn run game. As a result, the onus will once again fall on Ashford and the passing attack. So long as Georgia is fully focused, the Tigers will be hard-pressed to score much more than 10-14 points.
Auburn vs. Georgia O/U Pick
Over 49 (-109) ★★★★
Despite the angle discussed above in regard to fading Auburn’s offense in this spot, this game should feature more than 49 total points. With the majority of sportsbooks already moving this line to 49.5, bettors are advised to target the value found at BetRivers.
It pretty much goes without saying that Georgia will account for the bulk of the scoring in Saturday’s contest. While the Auburn defense did a nice job in holding LSU to 21 points last week, the fact that QB Jayden Daniels got knocked out due to injury certainly provided an assist.
For that matter, the Bulldogs’ offense is easily the most talented that the Tigers’ defense has encountered so far this season. Auburn has struggled to stop the run, allowing an average of 154.3 yards per game to FBS opponents. Penn State’s rushing attack is not as elite as Georgia’s, yet, the Nittany Lions managed to gash Auburn for 245 yards on the ground.
Based on the Tigers’ inability to defend the run, one has to believe that Kendall Milton, Kenny McIntosh and the rest of the UGA backfield will achieve great success on Saturday. If Georgia establishes the run early, this will only help open things up for QB Stetson Bennett IV and the passing game.
Auburn vs. Georgia Prop Pick
Georgia to Score 40-plus (-115) ★★★
The point spread and game total have both increased in size relative to opening odds. Thus, it's clear that smart money believes that Georgia will have a big game this week. As such, betting on UGA to score 40 points or more at a -115 price seems like a wager well worth making.
In the Bulldogs’ dominant wins over Oregon and South Carolina, they totaled 49 and 48 points, respectively. Once again, it’s tough to view the swaths of public support for Auburn as anything but an overreaction to Georgia’s sluggish performance last week.
The ‘Dawgs certainly have enough offensive talent to score 40-plus against the vast majority of teams in college football. If Auburn happens to put together a couple of scoring drives early, there will be even more motivation for Georgia to stay on the gas pedal offensively.
Where to Bet on Auburn vs. Georgia Picks
Auburn-Georgia picks made 10/5/2022 at 5:17 p.m. ET
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