Early Alabama vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds & Picks: Week 1

My early Alabama vs. Florida State prediction and picks breaks down a marquee non-conference matchup for Saturday's college football action.

Florida State will have its hands full as it looks to move on from a 2-10 campaign last season, facing an No. 8 Alabama squad that's trading as a 14-point betting favorite. As part of my college football Week 1 predictions, I'm going to explore if the Crimson Tide can find success with Ty Simpson under center.  

Kickoff from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla., is at  at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC).

💰 Best Alabama vs. Florida State early prediction: Week 1  

🔎 College football picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Alabama -13.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Up To $1,500 First Bet

Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.

Claim $1,500

This game is being played at Doak Campbell Stadium, but it’s hard to overstate how little that mattered a season ago. Of the Seminoles’ five home losses, four were by at least 15 points. Obviously, the Seminoles have acquired plenty of talent from the transfer portal, but the program was in such a dire situation at the end of last season that a handful of players don’t make them ready to battle the Crimson Tide. 

Therefore, my Alabama vs. Florida State early predictions are simple. Take the Crimson Tide to cover, even if this number gets above 14 points, and take the Under. Simpson is a fairly inexperienced quarterback, so the Crimson Tide may have trouble scoring early. However, the defense will have no problem shutting down the Seminoles for four quarters, as Simpson eventually settles in and leads the Crimson Tide to an easy cover.

📈 Alabama vs. Florida State early odds 

See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites.

Alabama vs. Florida State opening odds

• Moneyline: Alabama -550 | Florida State +400
• Spread: Alabama -12.5 (-110) | Florida State +12.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-110) | Under 50.5 (-110)

Alabama vs. Florida State odds analysis

The Crimson Tide opened as 12.5-point favorites at BetMGM, but the spread was as low as 11.5 at some of the best sportsbooks to start the week. However, bettors have overwhelmingly shown support for the Crimson Tide, as the spread has grown to 13.5 points, with 65% of wagers still backing Alabama to cover.

I expect the total to grow to 14.5, as bettors look at what Florida State did last season, and bet on a team many feel was robbed of a College Football Playoff spot. That said, once this number hits 14.5, some bettors will likely take the Seminoles because of the spread moving through the key number. I have no interest in Florida State in this game, and would gladly take the Crimson Tide up to -16.5.

As for the total, the number is set at 50 or 50.5, depending on the sportsbook you look at. The Seminoles scored more than 21 points just once last season, and that performance came against Charleston Southern. Tommy Castellanos takes over at QB after an up-and-down career at Boston College, and he needs to prove he can lead Florida State to success before I take any of their Overs. Take the Under because of how inept the Seminoles were on offense last year.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on college football or this week's best sportsbook promos.

📊 Alabama vs. Florida State betting insights 

Here are some betting insights from our college football odds on Thursday morning:

• The spread opened at Alabama -12.5 and has grown to -14, with 64% of the wagers on the road team to cover.
• Similarly, the moneyline has moved from -550 to as long as -625.
• The total has held steady at 50.5 points despite 58% of the wagers on the Over.

🚑 Alabama vs. Florida State injuries to watch  

⚔️ Alabama vs. Florida State head-to-head history

• Alabama has a 27-14 all-time record against Florida State.
• The Crimson Tide won the first matchup in 1916 and the most recent meeting in 2021.
• Alabama has won nine straight games against the Seminoles entering this weekend's matchup.

📺 How to watch Alabama vs. Florida State  

• When: Saturday, Aug. 30
• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Fla.)
• How to watch: ABC
• Weather: 87 degrees, 25% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph E
• Favorite: Alabama -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

💡 Expert early Week 1 college football predictions, odds & picks 

• Early Boise State vs. South Florida prediction, odds & picks
• Early Georgia Tech vs. Colorado prediction, odds & picks
• Early Texas vs. Ohio State prediction, odds & picks
• Early Alabama vs. Florida State prediction, odds & picks
• Early LSU vs. Clemson prediction, odds & picks
• Early Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina prediction, odds & picks
• Early Notre Dame vs. Miami prediction, odds & picks
• Early TCU vs. North Carolina prediction, odds & picks

📃 College football betting odds pages  

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.