Prediction Markets Go Big at Super Bowl LX, Kalshi Reports $1 Billion in Trading Volume

Prediction market operator Kalshi has said that it has recorded over $1 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl LX, an increase of 2,700% year-over-year, according to Chief Executive Officer Tarek Mansour.

Kalshi allows users to buy and sell positions on event contracts tied to outcomes in politics, pop culture, financial markets, and sports, and has experienced dramatic growth in recent months. In an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, Tarek Mansour said it had been an incredible weekend.

“Kalshi was the biggest brand of the Super Bowl this year, without running a Super Bowl ad, and the way we achieved that is the product,” he said. 

In addition to the outcome of the game, contracts tied to halftime performer Bad Bunny’s opening song produced over $100 million in volume. Markets based on which guests would appear alongside Bad Bunny drew another $45 million in bets.

Despite its success at the Super Bowl, the game didn’t come without a couple of hitches for Kalshi. Co-founder Luana Lopes Lara said users' payouts had been delayed due to the high volume of traffic the markets were generating. 

At the same time, the rapid growth of prediction market apps has drawn increased scrutiny. Critics have raised concerns about potential insider-trading risks in event-based financial contracts. Ahead of the Super Bowl, Kalshi announced additional measures to expand its surveillance and enforcement efforts to identify and remove accounts engaged in insider trading.

According to the company, in the last year, it conducted over 200 investigations, froze relevant accounts, and referred some cases to the police. 

Cardi B halftime cameo sparks dispute

Integrity issues are not the only controversy facing prediction market operators. While trading volumes soared over Super Bowl weekend, one halftime appearance sparked controversy among the main prediction platforms.

Cardi B appeared during Bad Bunny’s halftime show alongside Karol G, Young Miko, and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal. She danced during the performance, which also included appearances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga. However, it was unclear whether she sang during the show, and that distinction was at the heart of a subsequent dispute on the markets. 

On Kalshi’s platform, more than $47.3 million was traded on a market asking who will perform in the half-time show, and a similar market on Polymarket generated over $10 million. 

Following the halftime show, Kalshi stated that there had been “ambiguity” over whether Cardi B’s attendance constituted a “performance”, settling the contract at the last traded price before it paused trading, and returning all funds to users.

The disagreement escalated further when at least one Kalshi trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. A complaint reported in U.S. sports media alleges that Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act in resolving the Cardi B contract. The trader, who held a Yes position, is seeking $3,700 in compensation. 

Polymarket, meanwhile, initially determined that Cardi B had performed during the show but later said it was considering its final position following complaints.