Prediction Markets Build on Super Bowl Surge as March Madness Comes Next

Prediction markets posted record activity around the Super Bowl, and executives said the event may be a prelude to heavier volumes tied to a packed 2026 sports calendar. Data from Sensor Tower showed Kalshi's app downloads during Super Bowl week climbed 1,544% year over year, while daily active users rose more than 1,100% to nearly 2 million on game day.

That total was almost three times the daily active users recorded by BetMGM, which reached 680,000 after an 81% growth. Polymarket reported 59,000 daily active users, up 264% year over year. 

Looking ahead at the sports calendar, the Winter Olympics will run through February 22, followed by March Madness and the NBA All-Star Weekend, and the NCAA Tournament begins with Selection Sunday on March 15. The men's tournament historically attracts more wagering dollars than the Super Bowl. The World Cup, featuring 104 matches, begins in mid-June.

While prediction market apps list contracts spanning weather, politics, and financial indicators, sports have generated the largest share of activity. 

Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood, said on his company's fourth-quarter earnings call that trading momentum extended beyond football. NBA-linked contracts exceeded NFL trading activity on the platform in January, he said.

Additionally, Kalshi said more than $1 billion was traded on its Super Bowl contracts, a 2,700% increase from last year. Co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour said concentrated trading options drove engagement, noting that culture-related contracts generated significant turnover. 

Trading tied to which songs Bad Bunny would perform surpassed $100 million over the weekend, he said.

Sensor Tower estimated Kalshi's US marketing spend was roughly 19 times that of Polymarket and about 35% higher than DraftKings over the measured period. Still, traditional sportsbooks remained larger in scale. 

DraftKings recorded 5 million daily active users on Super Bowl Sunday, while FanDuel reached 4.2 million, according to the same data.

Dispute over halftime appearance

The surge in trading also exposed how platforms interpret contract terms when outcomes are not straightforward. A dispute emerged after Cardi B appeared during Bad Bunny's Super Bowl halftime set alongside Karol G, Pedro Pascal, and Jessica Alba. While she did not sing, she was visible, dancing and mouthing the lyrics.

Polymarket users had wagered more than $4.4 million on whether she would perform. The platform originally determined that the market should resolve to ‘Yes’, citing language stating that a contract would pay out if she performed live and in person during the show. 

However, the decision has been challenged and is scheduled for further review.

According to Kalshi's rules, three conditions must be met for a performance: you must be on stage, you must perform by dancing or singing, and you must be a scheduled participant or a guest participant. 

Cardi B fulfilled all three. However, a separate language excludes dancing or appearing on stage without singing or playing instruments.

Due to the conflict between the two rules, Kalshi has a clause granting it the authority to make a decision when the market terms are not clearly stated.