Polymarket User Profits From Swift-Kelce Engagement Bet

A trader identified as romanticpaul made more than $3,000 in profit after betting on Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s engagement less than a day before the announcement on Polymarket, which allows users to trade contracts on the outcome of future events.

At 1 p.m. ET on Aug. 26, Swift and Kelce shared photos of their engagement on Instagram. Within minutes, attention turned to activity on prediction market Polymarket, where romanticpaul placed heavy wagers shortly before the post went live.

Publicly available trading records showed that romanticpaul began buying “Yes” shares in the Swift-Kelce engagement market on 31 July. Activity intensified on Aug. 25 around 3 p.m. ET, when the user bought 1,708 shares priced mostly under $.40. Polymarket shares always pay out $1 if the predicted outcome occurs, meaning each share was set to return $.60 to $.70 profit.

Less than 15 minutes before Swift and Kelce’s announcement, romanticpaul purchased another 1,200 shares even though the market still suggested the chance of an engagement in 2025 was below 50%.

In total, the bettor purchased 5,180 shares, spending about $2,046. When Swift and Kelce confirmed their engagement, each share settled at $1, resulting in a payout of $5,180 and a net profit of $3,134. 

Polymarmet returns to the U.S. with $112 million deal

Polymarket’s win precedes its U.S. return, as Polymarket is preparing to relaunch in the U.S. after acquiring QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million. The move ends a three-year absence following a 2022 settlement with regulators that forced the prediction platform to block American users and pay a $1.4 million penalty.

Founded in 2020, Polymarket had gained notoriety during the 2024 U.S. election when traders staked $3.2 billion on the platform, mostly on Donald Trump’s chances of becoming the next President. 

With the probe now closed and U.S. access restored, Polymarket plans to compete with Kalshi, another prediction exchange recently cleared to offer election bets.

“Polymarket has acquired QCEX, a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million,” founder and CEO Shayne Coplan wrote in an X post. “This paves the way for us to welcome American traders again. I’ve waited a long time to say this: Polymarket is coming home.”

Polymarket nears $1 billion valuation

In another recent development, Polymarket is close to raising $200 million in a funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, valuing the prediction market platform at more than $1 billion.

CEO Shayne Coplan founded the popular prediction site in 2020, which has since popularized event derivatives trading, where traders buy and sell shares tied to outcomes such as elections or economic decisions.