Polymarket Traders Put Trump Impeachment Odds at 66%

Odds for Donald Trump’s impeachment before the end of his term peaked at 70% this week on Polymarket, before slightly dropping to 66% on June 25. The contract concerns House action, not removal from office. A separate market placed the chance of impeachment occurring sometime this year at about 6%. 

Still, the probability of the longer-term contract has risen by 22% since it went live on one of the best prediction markets, from 45% in March. Polymarket participants buy and sell positions tied to a specified outcome, so the probability can move when traders react to political developments or new information. 

The House must approve articles of impeachment by a simple majority. Democrats were six votes short of that threshold at the time of the market reading, though the party was favored to regain the chamber in the November midterms. Conviction and removal would require a two-thirds vote in the Senate, a step outside the market's terms. 

Rep. Shri Thanedar, a Michigan Democrat, filed seven articles of impeachment in April. Other House Democrats said at the time that the effort lacked the votes to advance. Trump has faced two prior Senate trials, neither of which ended in conviction. 

The market's peak at 70% therefore reflects trading on a possible House vote, not a measure of public support for impeachment or a prediction of a Senate outcome. 

Polymarket's creator campaign draws scrutiny 

The attention around that political contract came as Polymarket faced separate questions over a social media campaign that used staged betting footage. 

A Wall Street Journal investigation found that Polymarket paid dozens of largely college-age creators to record apparent bets on sites made to resemble its platform. The Journal reviewed 1,105 videos posted by 10 creators between December 2025 and mid-May. About 70% showed a wager. None of the displayed bets, totaling roughly $1.9 milllion, were real. 

One clip presented a $100,000 profit from a wager that Trump would say "McDonald's" during January. The video used footage from two months earlier. More than 50 real Polymarket accounts made that same January bet, and all lost, according to the report. 

Polymarket created replica sites for the campaign, including poiymarket.com, which could appear similar to the actual address when the first letter is capitalized. In 118 videos, creators celebrated nearly $900,000 in supposed wins. The relevant wagers would have produced losses exceeding $166,000. 

The creators received about $2,000 to $3,000 a month and were instructed not to reveal the relationship. The videos reached more than 140 million views across TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram. Polymarket said it would conduct a broad review of its promotional material. Its main platform has been barred from serving US users since a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.