MLB Explores Prediction Market Partnerships Amid Integrity Probe

The MLB is considering partnerships with prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi as it navigates an ongoing federal case involving players accused of manipulating pitches for betting purposes. 

Commissioner Rob Manfred said owners were briefed at meetings this week on the possibility of working with the federally regulated platforms, which operate differently from state-regulated sportsbooks and offer event contracts across sports and other sectors.

The MLB's existing agreements with traditional sports betting operators provide access to wagering data. That information helped link Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase and starter Luis Ortiz to irregular betting patterns last year, leading to federal charges. Manfred said partnering with prediction market apps could provide similar oversight in a rapidly expanding segment he only recently learned about.

"We thought it was important for the owners to be updated on why prediction markets are different than sports betting -- why we might want to consider being in be business with prediction markets in an effort to protect our integrity, to get the kind of protections we need," Manfred said. "The regulatory framework, very different. Obviously state by state on the sports betting side, federal on the other."

If MLB chooses to partner with prediction markets, it will follow a pattern similar to that of other leagues, such as the UFC, NHL, and MLS, which have recently partnered with Kalshi and Polymarket. However, despite the growing number of leagues moving away from traditional sportsbooks toward prediction markets, these platforms don’t come without scrutiny. 

Prediction markets have been involved in many battles with state gambling regulators in recent months, including Nevada and Massachusetts, where they allege that sports event contracts count as illegal gambling. In response, prediction markets argue that, because they are federally regulated, they can circumvent state gambling laws. 

Earlier in the month, New York Attorney General Letitia James also released an alert to residents of New York ahead of the Super Bowl, calling prediction markets “unregulated gambling” and a “significant financial risk” for users. 

NFL maintains cautious approach

While MLB evaluates potential agreements, the NFL has taken a measured stance. Speaking before Super Bowl LX in San Francisco, NFL Executive VP Jeff Miller said the league views prediction markets as innovative but remains uncertain about regulatory outcomes.

Miller said prediction markets can serve as a fan engagement tool and acknowledged their growth. He added that the league will spend significant time evaluating the space while maintaining its principles.

In December, Miller testified before the House Committee on Agriculture, raising concerns about sports-related event contracts and their potential impact on game integrity. He cited the lack of safeguards common in regulated sports betting, including information-sharing requirements and integrity monitoring systems.

In December, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell also said the league was not prepared to enter the market due to regulatory uncertainty. The NFL prohibited prediction-market advertisements during this year's Super Bowl, signaling its concerns remain unresolved.

The NFL was at the forefront of efforts to prevent the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act from being overturned in 2018. Prediction markets haven't shown support for them, but the comments signal potential partnerships in the future.