Massive $13 Million World Cup Wager Loss Showcases Prediction Market Dominance

A World Cup trader has lost $13 million after betting on Belgium to defeat Egypt, the wager comes amid prediction market dominance during the tournament.

Ziv Chen

Last Updated: June 23, 2026 3:06 PM EDT • 2 minute read

Pictured: Belgium's Romelu Lukaku reacts as we look at a massive World Cup loss on Belgium vs. Egypt. Photo by REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian

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A World Cup trader lost $13 million after a large position on Belgium failed to settle in its favor. The wager required Belgium to beat Egypt. Instead, the teams drew 1-1, erasing the position and leaving one of the tournament's biggest publicly visible losses.

The result stood out because other traders made substantial returns through similar contracts. A Polymarket account identified as “GRIMDRIP” turned $6 million into $13.6 million through two positions tied to Czechia's match against South Africa.

Another user, “mintblade,” doubled a $7 million position after betting Iran would not beat New Zealand. An account called “endlessFate” made $5.6 million on Saudi Arabia's match against Uruguay and later added $2.7 million by backing Colombia against Uzbekistan.

Those results do not show each trader's entire financial position. An account can hold other contracts, make offsetting trades, or operate separately elsewhere. Still, the Belgium result showed how quickly a single unhedged soccer position can produce a major loss once the final whistle ends trading.

The activity has arrived alongside a sharp rise in World Cup trading on prediction market apps. More than $5 billion had been traded on tournament contracts through Polymarket's international platform and Kalshi. Kalshi recorded three consecutive days with more than $1 billion in daily trading during the World Cup and NBA Finals.

DraftKings also reported its biggest event-contract weekend to date. Its customer count rose by more than 200% from the previous weekend, while trading volume doubled. Prediction markets have made these outcomes unusually visible by displaying positions, prices, and account results as matches unfold.

World Cup wagering forecasted to break records

That burst of contract activity reflects a wider forecast for the 2026 tournament. Financial firm Macquarie expects more than $50 billion to be wagered worldwide, making the World Cup the biggest betting event on record.

The estimate works out to roughly $500 million for every match and exceeds the approximately $35 billion wagered on the 2022 tournament in Qatar.

The increase is tied partly to FIFA's expanded format. The field has grown from 32 teams to 48, while the schedule has risen from 64 matches to 104. The tournament runs for 39 days across the US, Canada, and Mexico, ending with the July 19 final at MetLife Stadium.

The additional matches give sportsbooks and trading platforms more events to price. Macquarie also identified the host nations' time zones as favorable for viewers in Europe, Latin America, and Africa, which could broaden betting demand across several markets.

The US market is also much larger than it was during the 2022 World Cup. Legal sports betting is available to about 65% of Americans, compared with about 40% four years ago. However, gambling-awareness groups cautioned that a longer tournament and wider betting access could deepen losses among people who do not usually gamble.

Written by:
Ziv Chen

Ziv has over two decades of experience in the igaming and sports betting industry, having served in senior marketing and business development positions with both B2C and B2B companies, including Playtech and Microgaming. In 2019, Ziv decided to pursue his passion for writing and became a fulltime industry journalist, covering casino, sports, and gambling business news. He’s specialties include casino games and technology, US state gambling regulation, company performance, as well as gambling affiliates and marketing. As a Pitt graduate, Ziv is a diehard fan of all Pittsburgh sports teams, with the Steelers at the top of the list. In his free time, he enjoys reading crime fiction, biographies (mainly of sports personalities, but not only) and American history. Ziv’s Favorite quote: “We're going to pursue perfection, knowing full well we won't catch it, but we're going to relentlessly chase it," Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach.